Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1524062315611cf6ee8df3ed29082faa5270d911c12305200906a0501f05287d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,907
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,146
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,907 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 27c | 850.5$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.43 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa94…3601backed Yes | 27c | 699.18$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.56 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 8c | 502.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 20c | 372.14$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.64 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 19c | 317.24$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.09 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 241.83$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.51 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd3…a457backed Yes | 10c | 233.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 7c | 220$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bc…8853backed No | 68c | 205.94$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.96 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 183.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 161.78$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 160.83$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.26 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 74c | 158.2$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.66 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 74c | 157.76$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.31 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 12c | 148.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 73c | 143.52$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.56 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 141.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 71c | 141.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 8c | 134.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 18c | 129.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 78c | 129.72$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…82c5backed Yes | 14c | 128.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 31c | 120$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…7429backed Yes | 24c | 114.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 29c | 114.52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…6bdfbacked Yes | 13c | 112.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…3145backed Yes | 22c | 109.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 76c | 105.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 30c | 100.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd3…98efbacked Yes | 13c | 100.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 96.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 11c | 94.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 80c | 91.61$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…c336backed Yes | 18c | 76.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 73c | 75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 66c | 70.41$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…29e8backed Yes | 28c | 68.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 22c | 68.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 76c | 67.06$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 17c | 62.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 62.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 75c | 59.71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd00…d1afbacked Yes | 23c | 57.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 38c | 53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 74c | 52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaf93…5d2abacked No | 73c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 24c | 49.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc7…51adbacked Yes | 25c | 49.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 33c | 44.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8261…d341backed No | 74c | 33.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51d9…b0aebacked No | 80c | 30.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe073…25f9backed No | 75c | 26.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 73cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1799…3ca9backed No | 75c | 26.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…7a24backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5068…1ffabacked No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 73c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 24.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bef…cca4backed No | 72c | 23.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 77c | 22.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 22.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb26…55a5backed No | 75c | 22.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x858f…b802backed No | 76c | 21.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.32per pick | 69cpaid | -48%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 67c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…55bfbacked No | 78c | 20.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 83 | 85.5%71 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 78cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 20.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 76c | 19.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…8c1bbacked No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 120 | 70.8%85 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 62c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 68c | 18.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 72c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 77c | 17.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…744abacked No | 78c | 15.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f33…29cebacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.