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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,725
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,982

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,725 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8882…03fbbacked Yes21c1,259$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$994.5851733.3%172 W · 345 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No32c622.57$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.662,30427%622 W · 1,682 L-41.0wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e0b…0020backed No78c326.12$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.139830.4%121 W · 277 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0bd3…a457backed Yes9c315.63$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.014932.7%16 W · 33 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+30.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8b9…3afcbacked No5c315$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5420438.7%79 W · 125 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No44c281.9$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.775,79560%3,479 W · 2,316 L-110.0wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No38c260.94$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.714,61658.3%2,689 W · 1,927 L-114.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9cc…744abacked Yes56c251.22$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.312825%7 W · 21 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No11c239.93$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.846,85753.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L+417.4wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes12c200$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.841,85725.4%472 W · 1,385 L+133.6wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+48.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No11c199.54$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.32,25256.6%1,275 W · 977 L+64.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No41c177.24$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.355,47856%3,069 W · 2,409 L-123.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8261…d341backed No80c175.58$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.931872.2%13 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick72cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes20c154.64$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.072,21323.7%525 W · 1,688 L+86.2wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ff7…82c5backed Yes22c144.39$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.8211515.7%18 W · 97 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No72c122.38$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.677,2319.3%675 W · 6,556 L-1,115.6wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.8%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xe1aa…7429backed Yes11c115$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.259426.6%25 W · 69 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3e4…f053backed No44c113.83$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.618046.1%83 W · 97 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ea7…7450backed No75c113.77$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.2241760.4%252 W · 165 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1570…de29backed Yes15c106.88$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.8847158.8%277 W · 194 L+14.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x438a…61c4backed Yes27c103.22$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.6123442.7%100 W · 134 L+18.1wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+34.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No41c103.12$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.882,20056%1,233 W · 967 L+54.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No47c102$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.641,43352.1%747 W · 686 L-21.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x658b…84bfbacked Yes77c100.48$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.1120445.1%92 W · 112 L+14.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+6.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes13c100$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.51,30132.9%428 W · 873 L+24.5wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb94a…d680backed Yes24c100$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.6512348%59 W · 64 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfea5…ee06backed Yes43c99.99$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.4927029.3%79 W · 191 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed Yes11c99.47$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.0148919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x21bc…1fe9backed Yes28c98$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.121735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9196…d934backed No61c97.4$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1665160.4%393 W · 258 L+92.1wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+35.6%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes16c92.8$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.9538131%118 W · 263 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes61c89.39$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.622,21155.9%1,236 W · 975 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes12c87.51$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.189,98744.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L+258.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ebb…405abacked No64c80.24$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.779240.9%324 W · 468 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No57c77.26$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.812,87920.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L-2,688.9wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.5%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes14c74.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.444,01435.6%1,428 W · 2,586 L+41.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes34c73.43$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.693,41131.1%1,062 W · 2,349 L-37.3wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda89…6215backed Yes34c72.8$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.83138.7%12 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+53.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes21c72.76$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.7619927.1%54 W · 145 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa7d9…c3cbbacked Yes55c72.62$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.835246.2%24 W · 28 L-4.6wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-18.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6897…a4a4backed Yes17c71.73$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.7119217.2%33 W · 159 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes16c71.16$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.977,56437.5%2,840 W · 4,724 L+95.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8699…f6bebacked Yes44c69.06$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.679440.4%38 W · 56 L+12.4wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+51.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No61c64.51$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.422,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd00…d1afbacked Yes16c63.9$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.643836.8%14 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+68.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd24b…187dbacked Yes79c63$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2361365.3%400 W · 213 L+43.8wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No77c61.96$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.852,03661.7%1,256 W · 780 L+1.5wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes46c60.73$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.512,19357%1,249 W · 944 L+68.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d39…099abacked No47c58.82$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6529751.9%154 W · 143 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes33c57.02$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.972,54845.4%1,157 W · 1,391 L+23.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f61…840abacked Yes73c53.95$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3738670.2%271 W · 115 L+64.1wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+32.3%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x9f25…bee4backed Yes53c48.61$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.039341.9%39 W · 54 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No48c41.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85d2…7479backed No48c40.56$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4654658.8%321 W · 225 L+47.2wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+23.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4b75…1a96backed Yes25c40$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+300%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No74c35$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.852,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ef0…62e0backed No62c32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8419052.1%99 W · 91 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88f9…53d7backed Yes32c31.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.52842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7615…308abacked No60c30.31$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1918441.3%76 W · 108 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No47c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.11,61161.8%995 W · 616 L+17.6wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x164c…3e39backed Yes66c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.151,08751.9%564 W · 523 L+75.0wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No61c30$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.32,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No70c28.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.951,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No57c28$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.961,27547.6%607 W · 668 L-24.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No54c27.36$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.839392.4%23 W · 916 L-386.8wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.4%equal weight5-0.40 edge/pick
0x4d07…2b94backed No78c25.49$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8817443.7%76 W · 98 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfacf…b884backed Yes79c25.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.327100%7 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+47.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6469…a047backed Yes59c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.253360.6%20 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd84…0fe5backed No73c24.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2451568%350 W · 165 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No78c23.07$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9962770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes53c22.93$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.862,20859.2%1,307 W · 901 L+111.5wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed No70c22.36$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6578151.9%405 W · 376 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4264…1706backed Yes72c21.67$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.0740871.8%293 W · 115 L-0.8wins0.00per pick72cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes72c21.35$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.922,26058.3%1,318 W · 942 L+85.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes67c21.05$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.9899962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No76c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.163,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5157…fdbcbacked No66c19.98$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1853353.1%283 W · 250 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccbc…f417backed Yes79c18.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.99580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+48%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes56c18.9$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.382,23658.1%1,300 W · 936 L+83.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No79c17.76$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.035,20149.9%2,595 W · 2,606 L-161.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes71c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.42,18057%1,243 W · 937 L+73.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1941…deeabacked No72c14.27$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.271,07836.5%393 W · 685 L+25.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid0%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c0f…229abacked No79c12.66$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101782.4%14 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick80cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.