Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9cb0618f127af630b00733c08668f8aa5e6e555c98a78cf190a6ad80c2494cdb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,037
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,456
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,037 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 11c | 696.76$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.42 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa94…3601backed Yes | 40c | 611.56$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.71 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 350.32$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.75 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 74c | 297.38$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.35 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 219.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 31c | 218.07$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.34 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 78c | 144.87$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 36c | 140.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 138.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 74c | 133$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…9da0backed Yes | 37c | 131.97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 122.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 33c | 118.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…7429backed Yes | 29c | 114.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 64c | 104$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa094…a5b0backed Yes | 11c | 101.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 100.09$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.03 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53fd…7e7ebacked Yes | 15c | 99.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 25c | 90.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 84.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 60c | 83.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 60c | 75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 78c | 68.62$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 66.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd00…d1afbacked Yes | 27c | 63.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 24c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 75c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 30c | 49.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 26c | 48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd3…a457backed No | 61c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8261…d341backed Yes | 35c | 35.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 34c | 35.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 35.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 65c | 30.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a7…5b77backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf237…f6a5backed No | 67c | 29.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 69c | 27.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 74c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 77c | 22.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.