MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a2b7783ed99199e8d0128e9d0ae0037c70b5cb4900b1487953300da8ff9aa83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,113
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,937
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,113 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 58c | 1,982$1,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.83 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Yes | 42c | 1,477$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.96 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07aa…63bfbacked No | 60c | 666.67$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.67 | 193 | 58%112 W · 81 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Yes | 40c | 645.68$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.27 | 233 | 51.1%119 W · 114 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 53c | 634.61$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.76 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8e…a316backed Yes | 41c | 500$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 226 | 38.5%87 W · 139 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6597…b746backed No | 61c | 462.44$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.72 | 253 | 51.8%131 W · 122 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 29c | 276.95$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.78 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 46c | 258.43$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.15 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Yes | 49c | 247.44$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.24 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked No | 55c | 240.66$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.3 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 39c | 179$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.81 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd4…91f7backed Yes | 74c | 169.4$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Yes | 45c | 165.67$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.55 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6f…f8e8backed No | 55c | 132.28$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.53 | 44 | 70.5%31 W · 13 L | +7.2wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 18c | 119.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf37c…3c74backed Yes | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 52c | 114.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.96 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…8a55backed No | 71c | 72.38$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02e0…3741backed Yes | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 163 | 49.1%80 W · 83 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 51c | 63.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b4cabacked Yes | 40c | 55.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -6.9wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 44c | 53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18d8…400bbacked Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe426…f4ffbacked Yes | 42c | 47.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…7802backed No | 38c | 34.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x11a5…2fa8backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 222 | 54.1%120 W · 102 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Marinersthis page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 3.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.