Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a2b7c29b096867d6ccd22029ebc3f5da307e06d7a37bc6bd2da4449ee31fbc4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,373
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,373 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb868…72abbacked No | 3c | 9,675$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.03 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f2…33e5backed No | 0c | 6,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 4c | 1,090$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.91 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 10c | 630.32$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xad92…af55backed No | 6c | 481.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7000…a918backed No | 2c | 453.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65e8…630fbacked No | 3c | 351.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 44c | 329.43$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.83 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 265.98$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.06 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 50c | 209.16$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.78 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed No | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 14c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 176.61$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.82 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4302…8d4fbacked No | 14c | 171.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 73c | 152.06$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.93 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 40c | 150$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…c8e4backed Yes | 53c | 136.67$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.36 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 15c | 120.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 45c | 120.45$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.96 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 44c | 114.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.32 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 50c | 110$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fdf…eab9backed No | 47c | 103.61$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 62c | 102.65$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 50c | 99.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.67 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed24…1b47backed Yes | 54c | 99.61$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.66 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f96…d4aabacked No | 55c | 91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.24 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 57c | 86.22$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 54c | 81.12$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 44c | 79.12$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.12 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 55c | 72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 29c | 69.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed No | 31c | 64.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 17c | 62.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b47…c0dabacked Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 59.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.54 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 49c | 57.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.56 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…72d0backed Yes | 53c | 56.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 55c | 56.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 42c | 52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 56c | 51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 37c | 50.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 48c | 46.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 42c | 44.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 48c | 43.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 47c | 42.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 27c | 41.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 27c | 39.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa16a…57d5backed Yes | 49c | 36.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc52…6ea2backed No | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…76afbacked No | 58c | 35.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 59c | 34.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5580…8029backed Yes | 58c | 34.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 50c | 34.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed No | 65c | 32.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3906…f74bbacked Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked No | 72c | 28.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 27.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b9…7d93backed Yes | 40c | 27.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ec…6373backed No | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 65c | 24.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 49c | 22.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…4005backed No | 68c | 15.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on March 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.