South American Leagues · resolved market
Will EC Bahia vs. Fluminense FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a36c0f66e54753b68ca90facaebf217e918a5f86a8c0c90370702f23b663eca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,020
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,936
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,020 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 71c | 7,333$5,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,226.83 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 31c | 6,194$1,911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,282.86 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8566…c626backed No | 70c | 6,000$4,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,199.99 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -5.4wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 29c | 3,550$1,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,520.35 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked No | 71c | 3,370$2,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,392.7 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed07…886abacked No | 68c | 3,000$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,040 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 30c | 2,558$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,781.86 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe726…4c87backed Yes | 30c | 2,315$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,620.15 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 29c | 1,977$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.25 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed No | 5c | 899.44$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 211 | 32.7%69 W · 142 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 71c | 765$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.15 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…cf14backed No | 71c | 718.31$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 29c | 648.43$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.38 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Yes | 31c | 645.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9086…4d46backed Yes | 32c | 610.66$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.25 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 63c | 525.86$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.93 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 30c | 400$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 82 | 28%23 W · 59 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Yes | 30c | 398.94$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.26 | 270 | 50.7%137 W · 133 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x273f…56febacked Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.37 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…b90bbacked Yes | 28c | 360$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.2 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +5.5wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Yes | 64c | 345$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.72 | 175 | 42.3%74 W · 101 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 78c | 291$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.66 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…7b3fbacked No | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 96 | 54.2%52 W · 44 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Yes | 29c | 252$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.92 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d1fabacked Yes | 27c | 230$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.9 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 37c | 229.75$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed No | 22c | 213.95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 120 | 51.7%62 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed70…48c1backed No | 71c | 200$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Yes | 30c | 148.17$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.72 | 79 | 30.4%24 W · 55 L | -9.3wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1036…fb48backed Yes | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…90f8backed Yes | 30c | 120$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…2d57backed No | 10c | 115.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 114 | 61.4%70 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 39c | 114.91$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.89 | 495 | 35.4%175 W · 320 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 70c | 106.45$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.52 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…e3ebbacked Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.05 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9078backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2a…3daebacked Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.77 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 32c | 94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 271 | 33.9%92 W · 179 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 66c | 93.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.92 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked No | 25c | 92.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed No | 19c | 89.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 95 | 22.1%21 W · 74 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0931…8dccbacked Yes | 26c | 88.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.65 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 68c | 88.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 151 | 58.3%88 W · 63 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a52…06cbbacked No | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x466f…bb3bbacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 103 | 26.2%27 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked No | 70c | 79.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.99 | 218 | 37.6%82 W · 136 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…e374backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1da8…a481backed Yes | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd647…909abacked Yes | 69c | 71.55$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 58c | 69.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 58c | 59.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 373 | 55.2%206 W · 167 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11f2…a7a0backed No | 57c | 55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d3…43abbacked No | 29c | 52.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d80…857dbacked Yes | 77c | 51.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed No | 39c | 51.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d1…a6a0backed Yes | 80c | 50.8$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked No | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 163 | 47.9%78 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x586d…fb12backed Yes | 33c | 45.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…0ddcbacked Yes | 66c | 39.55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2344…6ba3backed No | 28c | 39.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 71c | 34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9869…e817backed No | 70c | 29.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 71c | 27.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5555…d3d0backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x004d…2f67backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14de…489cbacked Yes | 74c | 19.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63f6…b9eabacked Yes | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will EC Bahia vs. Fluminense FC end in a draw?this page
- Will EC Bahia win on 2026-02-05?No won
- Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-02-05?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.