Portsmouth FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a406ae5e8d3c0c4558b3d19b5a5e7e00587801c770b6e2786b6ff972e2caf2a

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Mar 16, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $27,470
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $32,083

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,470 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Premier League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x598b…f296backed Under	59c	5,155$3,032 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,123.79	30	60%18 W · 12 L	+3.0wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+53.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Under	57c	4,000$2,280 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,719.98	142	58.5%83 W · 59 L	+11.0wins	+0.08per pick	51cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over	43c	1,478$632 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$631.82	2,550	47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L	+45.2wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over	24c	1,249$297 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$297.3	120	20.8%25 W · 95 L	-9.0wins	-0.07per pick	28cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	57c	1,240$707 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$533.05	1,004	46.3%465 W · 539 L	+25.8wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c80…93b5backed Over	44c	1,136$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$499.99	141	38.3%54 W · 87 L	-8.9wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Under	57c	859.51$490 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$369.59	175	57.1%100 W · 75 L	+10.7wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	76c	692.46$526 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$166.08	6,117	45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L	-28.6wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x96d9…18a0backed Over	42c	610$256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255.9	72	50%36 W · 36 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over	32c	553.09$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.99	318	49.1%156 W · 162 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked Over	12c	500$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	222	42.8%95 W · 127 L	-5.6wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x258f…4493backed Over	15c	480$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	30	10%3 W · 27 L	-4.0wins	-0.13per pick	23cpaid	-57.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6394…9749backed Over	44c	454.55$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	27	44.4%12 W · 15 L	+1.6wins	+0.06per pick	39cpaid	+42.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6619…703ebacked Over	43c	348.84$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	321	64.5%207 W · 114 L	-9.1wins	-0.03per pick	67cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over	45c	333.33$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	102	44.1%45 W · 57 L	+4.7wins	+0.05per pick	40cpaid	+32%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over	40c	320.41$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.57	2,212	49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L	-9.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe5af…f9e3backed Over	43c	313.95$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135	33	45.5%15 W · 18 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-11%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under	56c	282.85$157 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$125.44	517	50.1%259 W · 258 L	+19.4wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Under	58c	282.48$165 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.8	223	35.4%79 W · 144 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaffe…7140backed Over	45c	259.64$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.84	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-1.8wins	-0.11per pick	46cpaid	-30%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under	68c	255.54$173 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.02	1,934	42.4%820 W · 1,114 L	-43.1wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-18%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0189…cab8backed Over	43c	220$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.6	57	57.9%33 W · 24 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8725…d370backed Over	43c	200.09$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.04	33	45.5%15 W · 18 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Over	43c	200$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86	1,283	48%616 W · 667 L	-5.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x9271…a28abacked Over	45c	194.22$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.4	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Under	56c	173.77$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.46	850	48.4%411 W · 439 L	+12.5wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked Over	43c	162.41$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.84	365	54.5%199 W · 166 L	+13.8wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf800…bdbabacked Under	55c	144.26$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.92	191	45%86 W · 105 L	+4.1wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc253…5800backed Over	45c	140.73$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.33	105	50.5%53 W · 52 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Under	55c	138$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.1	722	49.9%360 W · 362 L	+5.4wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Over	32c	132$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.64	408	21.8%89 W · 319 L	-53.7wins	-0.13per pick	35cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	36-0.12 edge/pick
0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over	40c	125$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	93	39.8%37 W · 56 L	-8.1wins	-0.09per pick	48cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed Over	47c	120.08$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	91	37.4%34 W · 57 L	-4.8wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a0e…f285backed Over	42c	109.19$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.4	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2ba…4028backed Over	45c	100$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	596	45.5%271 W · 325 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45c1…4364backed Under	39c	99.18$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.5	30	50%15 W · 15 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Over	43c	97.15$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.78	118	50%59 W · 59 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf38c…d9f2backed Over	58c	94.83$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	177	45.2%80 W · 97 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x83df…362fbacked Under	58c	93.1$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.1	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.14per pick	57cpaid	-28%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a90…700bbacked Over	43c	93.02$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.15per pick	44cpaid	-59.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Under	51c	91.72$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.88	323	45.2%146 W · 177 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe2b…8fe6backed Under	58c	89.88$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.75	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.42per pick	58cpaid	+72.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1966…da9ebacked Under	58c	86.21$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.21	125	49.6%62 W · 63 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Under	58c	78.78$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.78	25	36%9 W · 16 L	-3.2wins	-0.13per pick	49cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9796…9032backed Over	43c	78.42$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.72	42	28.6%12 W · 30 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under	56c	78.42$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.75	1,409	44.5%627 W · 782 L	-6.0wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Over	43c	65.67$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.24	390	52.6%205 W · 185 L	+19.0wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeddf…913ebacked Over	44c	57.48$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.29	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf639…b945backed Over	44c	56.82$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	55cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbf2…31f0backed Over	43c	46.51$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-1.8wins	-0.11per pick	49cpaid	-30%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x41ad…8dddbacked Over	25c	40$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.05	60	28.3%17 W · 43 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Over	42c	37.99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.92	1,615	53%856 W · 759 L	+33.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2e4…4bc7backed Under	58c	35$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.7	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+1.6wins	+0.17per pick	60cpaid	+33.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1fe2…b543backed Under	58c	33.74$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.17	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.9wins	+0.46per pick	54cpaid	+86.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Over	42c	32.8$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.83	153	53.6%82 W · 71 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over	41c	30$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.3	891	52.9%471 W · 420 L	-4.5wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over	41c	30$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.3	162	51.2%83 W · 79 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Over	41c	28.25$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.58	1,224	42.3%518 W · 706 L	-27.6wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf13d…6b6ebacked Over	45c	26.67$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Over	43c	25$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.75	240	44.2%106 W · 134 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd60c…2b06backed Over	41c	25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.25	188	51.6%97 W · 91 L	+13.2wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2633…aaefbacked Under	58c	20.69$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.69	10	60%6 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	60cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Portsmouth FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 2.5this page
Portsmouth FC vs. Derby County FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Portsmouth FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 1.5Under won
Portsmouth FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Spread: Derby County FC (-1.5)Portsmouth FC won
Spread: Portsmouth FC (-1.5)Derby County FC won
Spread: Portsmouth FC (-2.5)Derby County FC won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Portsmouth FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event