Tennis · resolved market
Metepec: Alexis Galarneau vs Edward Winter
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a7a67cb50d452ecd00ec94d9d1cb4f34bd20cc5325333d774d1fa1815c4fd18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Galarneauof Galarneau, Winter
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,043
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,348
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,043 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Winter | 33c | 2,846$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.21 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Winter | 45c | 2,429$1,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090.5 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x969b…db70backed Winter | 1c | 1,538$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 0%0 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Winter | 66c | 1,463$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.41 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…fb66backed Galarneau | 54c | 1,078$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.85 | 536 | 44.8%240 W · 296 L | -20.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Galarneau | 56c | 1,024$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.43 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Galarneau | 51c | 931$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.85 | 990 | 44.8%444 W · 546 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Galarneau | 36c | 841.56$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.56 | 387 | 39.3%152 W · 235 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Winter | 34c | 804.51$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.24 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Galarneau | 45c | 609.26$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.5 | 186 | 44.6%83 W · 103 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Galarneau | 21c | 579.94$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.94 | 1,130 | 27.9%315 W · 815 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Galarneau | 63c | 526.27$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.23 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Galarneau | 47c | 500.03$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.38 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb31…7b95backed Galarneau | 35c | 500$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 680 | 26.2%178 W · 502 L | -24.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x403f…2b6bbacked Winter | 6c | 461.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Galarneau | 15c | 331.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.13 | 275 | 39.6%109 W · 166 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Winter | 60c | 323.23$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.47 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec8d…453dbacked Galarneau | 33c | 295.95$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.4 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67bb…d11fbacked Galarneau | 48c | 266.8$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.79 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Galarneau | 15c | 265.81$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.28 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee4c…8572backed Winter | 71c | 255.26$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.68 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x725d…e49abacked Winter | 52c | 190.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Galarneau | 9c | 181.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.05 | 151 | 17.9%27 W · 124 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Winter | 39c | 179.49$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1,266 | 34.2%433 W · 833 L | -43.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Winter | 44c | 165.08$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.1 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Winter | 29c | 162.46$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 328 | 42.7%140 W · 188 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c1…7fbebacked Galarneau | 78c | 161.08$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 282 | 47.9%135 W · 147 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8b…a0cabacked Galarneau | 63c | 150$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 126 | 59.5%75 W · 51 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Galarneau | 37c | 108.89$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.09 | 255 | 42%107 W · 148 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5949…2099backed Galarneau | 18c | 103.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +171.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Galarneau | 43c | 102.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.85 | 368 | 39.1%144 W · 224 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f97…a9b3backed Galarneau | 27c | 101.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.13 | 262 | 27.9%73 W · 189 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…e4ccbacked Galarneau | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 515 | 39.8%205 W · 310 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6c…1c75backed Galarneau | 72c | 74.88$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 73 | 74%54 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2127…37f2backed Winter | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 240 | 55%132 W · 108 L | -15.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31d7…42c1backed Winter | 43c | 69.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x794c…fa17backed Galarneau | 72c | 65.58$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 150 | 70%105 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…1973backed Galarneau | 42c | 64.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.31 | 212 | 43.9%93 W · 119 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Galarneau | 44c | 52.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e4…98f5backed Winter | 58c | 51.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 70 | 74.3%52 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Winter | 35c | 50.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Winter | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe795…d019backed Winter | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Winter | 24c | 49.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Winter | 28c | 46.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Galarneau | 38c | 46.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Galarneau | 70c | 44.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 210 | 72.4%152 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Galarneau | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 2,561 | 63%1,613 W · 948 L | -10.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Winter | 28c | 36.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96bc…d2b5backed Galarneau | 71c | 33.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 416 | 68%283 W · 133 L | +23.6wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Galarneau | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 263 | 49%129 W · 134 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc871…2f76backed Galarneau | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Galarneau | 71c | 15.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 580 | 67.8%393 W · 187 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.