Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C or higher on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a7cfd782194c3286de1a734e2548cfd1734e1dea7dc05aa7564aee8abf6f89d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,046
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,963
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,046 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 3c | 1,103$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 77c | 771.09$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.67 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 15c | 534.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.63 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 66c | 395.5$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.98 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 375.19$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 6c | 359.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 15c | 325.32$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 8c | 306.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 55c | 285.83$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.24 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 23c | 281.56$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.06 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 12c | 263.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 28c | 238.31$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.72 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 237.21$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.77 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed Yes | 8c | 232.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 11c | 196.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 14c | 190.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 14c | 187.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 22c | 185.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 10c | 183.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 36c | 181.07$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.81 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 20c | 173.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed Yes | 8c | 168.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 18c | 165.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 19c | 150$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 22c | 140.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 32c | 130.39$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.45 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 29c | 120.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 27c | 102.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 14c | 99.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 14c | 91.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 15c | 87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94a4…0a91backed Yes | 35c | 66.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 29c | 55.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 40c | 48.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfc…26febacked Yes | 25c | 46.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 64c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 38c | 44.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 29c | 43.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe978…ab29backed Yes | 44c | 34.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 59c | 34.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 42c | 28.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…2650backed Yes | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 88 | 77.3%68 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 72c | 14.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C or higher on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 2?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.