Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc60aed6de4ba30e354ffc37e51df9d60ef89f8018b325043f952465dfed91c41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,460
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,460 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b36…0d4bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,167$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.41 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b4…a4f5backed Yes | 33c | 805.07$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.62 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed No | 74c | 609.26$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.08 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfedf…e045backed Yes | 34c | 594.93$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 481.45$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.04 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 78c | 469.61$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.14 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 8c | 430.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fe…b472backed Yes | 30c | 331.62$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.87 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 80c | 320.89$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…018fbacked Yes | 8c | 270.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 218.93$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.98 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 29c | 213.21$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.87 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 204.72$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.39 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 34c | 201$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.34 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 19c | 198.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 69c | 190.44$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.3 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 9c | 188.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 13c | 181.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 51c | 178.28$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.23 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 66c | 160.08$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.43 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 65c | 155.71$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa39c…1d84backed Yes | 27c | 155.64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 33cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 74c | 134.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 25c | 127.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 72c | 125.6$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 30c | 123.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 96$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6030…8fe0backed Yes | 28c | 89.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 16c | 85.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 65c | 80.71$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 31c | 71.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 68c | 71.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 77c | 71.43$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 41c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 26c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 59.21$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf691…3ec1backed No | 78c | 57.74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 53.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 25c | 52.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9999…2dedbacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +227.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 49.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 75c | 49.65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 76c | 46.25$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…edf6backed No | 79c | 44.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked No | 75c | 42.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 25c | 41.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3412…e651backed No | 75c | 29.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 69cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 74c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7abf…bad1backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 71cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 59c | 17.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 58c | 17.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C or higher on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.