Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e8f05c64761a64ce502e2504ca93eb85437c0cac2fb5f07a0aa99f6ec958361
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,049
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,049 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 0c | 4,996$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 18c | 608.25$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.67 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 9c | 349.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 347.64$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.03 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fe…b472backed Yes | 25c | 333$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.25 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 39c | 258.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.31 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…018fbacked Yes | 7c | 247.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 218.76$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.17 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 8c | 211.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 19c | 200.7$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 27c | 200$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.45 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 78c | 168.07$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 75c | 160$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 17c | 153.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 9c | 139.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 69c | 128.45$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed Yes | 20c | 115$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfedf…e045backed Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 10c | 109.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed Yes | 20c | 108.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 106$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 105.53$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 25c | 101.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 97.15$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 15c | 92.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 15c | 91.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 18c | 91.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 21c | 87.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 17c | 83.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 74c | 75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 18c | 73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 17c | 72.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 78c | 65.31$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…1dd9backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9999…2dedbacked No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +227.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 19c | 59.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 21c | 52.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 50c | 51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 23c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 46.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 80c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa39c…1d84backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 33cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 39c | 38.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 75c | 37.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 76c | 36.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 73c | 33.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 74c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 77c | 23.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…c336backed No | 78c | 22.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 19.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae33…7804backed No | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 78c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 77c | 16.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 62c | 16.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30d…1bf6backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C or higher on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.