Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9632d4b0757b23f63246e71cdfc61ef3cd7333973dfad08823d590d5eb864683
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,580
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,347
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,580 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 10c | 5,474$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.88 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 32c | 3,255$1,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.15 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b4…a4f5backed Yes | 66c | 2,821$1,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$967.56 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 31c | 1,160$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.46 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 59c | 836.26$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.14 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 9c | 661.44$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.55 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 79c | 528.84$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.92 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 37c | 423.13$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.51 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 19c | 395.66$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 24c | 354.84$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 10c | 341.29$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.16 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed No | 62c | 338.41$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.42 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 4c | 287.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 68c | 268.55$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.03 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 79c | 255.2$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.81 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3db4…962cbacked No | 80c | 249.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 70c | 238.26$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.89 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 45c | 212$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.06 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…b236backed No | 34c | 207.39$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 7c | 207.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.71 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 61c | 204.97$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.34 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 67c | 203.48$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.79 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 24c | 189.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 187.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.61 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 60c | 183.2$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.65 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 75c | 175.95$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 21c | 168.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.73 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 74c | 164.92$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.69 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked No | 19c | 164.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 9c | 152.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 80c | 151.69$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.22 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 151$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.44 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed No | 17c | 148.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 15c | 140.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 15c | 135.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 8c | 131.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.86 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…3e8bbacked Yes | 18c | 108.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.77 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf375…98d0backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 70c | 93.67$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 42c | 90.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 74c | 85.56$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 21c | 75.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 61c | 74.78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.81 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 51c | 71.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 36c | 70.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9999…2dedbacked Yes | 73c | 65.25$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +227.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 27c | 61.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94a4…0a91backed Yes | 58c | 58.41$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked No | 76c | 54.2$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | -21.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 79c | 53.94$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 48c | 52.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1b88…a191backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…8a8bbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 55c | 44.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfc…26febacked No | 26c | 43.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 79c | 40.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 57c | 38.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…9f83backed Yes | 79c | 37.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 84 | 76.2%64 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…8378backed Yes | 77c | 36.72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 80c | 31.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2679…6a1abacked Yes | 64c | 28.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 64cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 73c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C or higher on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.