Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will PAOK vs. Maccabi Tel Aviv end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3af818501765ee6072000bab5c3aeb37e9b8abaa7898ad7cde01c4be2c6df84b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,550
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,430
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,550 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 28c | 12,046$3,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,618.9 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked No | 73c | 9,999$7,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,299.45 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 12c | 3,281$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.36 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed No | 69c | 1,594$1,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100.8 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 71c | 499.51$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.66 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 72c | 419.32$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.91 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 68c | 358.93$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.43 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2a…4945backed Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.83 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 69c | 324$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.24 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 70c | 286$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.2 | 118 | 69.5%82 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 28c | 285.71$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.71 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4c…6579backed No | 73c | 185$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.05 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 29c | 173.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.73 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Yes | 38c | 166.41$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed No | 73c | 159.26$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.26 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 41c | 153$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.73 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.86 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7f…9fecbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 73c | 88.18$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.94 | 122 | 69.7%85 W · 37 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Yes | 27c | 85.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.19 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…31a3backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 24cpaid | +142.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 274 | 37.2%102 W · 172 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1092…28d7backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…7358backed Yes | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c5…b378backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…7293backed No | 77c | 38.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…641fbacked Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb32b…522dbacked No | 75c | 16.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 73c | 14.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will PAOK vs. Maccabi Tel Aviv end in a draw?this page
- Will Maccabi Tel Aviv win on 2025-09-24?No won
- Will PAOK win on 2025-09-24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.