South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Lanús vs. AA Argentinos Juniors end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b243ea9cadf0f8b792de71eafc1cf90820a1ba2cf6cafb1dbd71470793cb3c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,635
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,635 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 11c | 2,212$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.09 | 595 | 39.7%236 W · 359 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked No | 44c | 1,660$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.13 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d91…cdebbacked No | 3c | 1,130$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 22cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 66c | 1,066$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.78 | 2,608 | 39.3%1,024 W · 1,584 L | -29.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 18c | 900$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.57 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 51c | 797.47$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.11 | 5,831 | 45.4%2,647 W · 3,184 L | +99.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f6…e517backed Yes | 77c | 779.55$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.55 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cda…1397backed Yes | 80c | 683.67$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.67 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed No | 2c | 618.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 244 | 37.3%91 W · 153 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed No | 29c | 544.72$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.08 | 176 | 42%74 W · 102 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 31c | 454.58$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.05 | 8,175 | 48.7%3,980 W · 4,195 L | +27.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 62c | 361.55$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.38 | 1,511 | 46.1%697 W · 814 L | -15.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…b0a7backed Yes | 19c | 315.79$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.79 | 229 | 33.6%77 W · 152 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed No | 67c | 300.39$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.26 | 230 | 67%154 W · 76 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f50…63a7backed Yes | 63c | 292.59$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.61 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 75c | 239.53$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.46 | 1,339 | 56.9%762 W · 577 L | +55.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…01e5backed Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 25c | 133.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 934 | 45.1%421 W · 513 L | -28.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked No | 58c | 111.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.55 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Yes | 25c | 100.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.27 | 189 | 46.6%88 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 14c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 143 | 49.7%71 W · 72 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 14c | 74.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 1,559 | 45.1%703 W · 856 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed No | 76c | 74.03$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.09 | 343 | 41.1%141 W · 202 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4333backed No | 73c | 68.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 240 | 45%108 W · 132 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Yes | 26c | 48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 197 | 49.7%98 W · 99 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda6f…1e46backed Yes | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 61c | 38.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 1,466 | 56.8%833 W · 633 L | +56.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 67c | 37.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 2,376 | 34.7%824 W · 1,552 L | -27.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f8…aa04backed No | 39c | 27.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…d93abacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed No | 50c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66fc…2a1fbacked Yes | 77c | 16.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 63 | 74.6%47 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Lanús vs. AA Argentinos Juniors end in a draw?this page
- Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2026-08-24?No won
- Will CA Lanús win on 2026-08-24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.