Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: SHFT (-1.5) vs Team Heretics (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b332b1d0b1a5139e7193fd2e12a8300196a112bf77d3b24beb6bfed7f5d0fdd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shiftersof Shifters, Team Heretics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,908
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,492
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,908 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe308…25cdbacked Shifters | 37c | 13,174$4,924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,250.32 | 664 | 37.2%247 W · 417 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed Shifters | 63c | 4,594$2,916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,678.09 | 918 | 54%496 W · 422 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7787backed Team Heretics | 63c | 4,441$2,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,783.42 | 644 | 43%277 W · 367 L | -27.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74a8…df59backed Team Heretics | 63c | 4,141$2,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,608.55 | 360 | 34.4%124 W · 236 L | -21.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked Team Heretics | 36c | 3,047$1,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,096.8 | 759 | 42%319 W · 440 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x642c…21a7backed Team Heretics | 54c | 2,117$1,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,143.04 | 350 | 54.6%191 W · 159 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4da…1772backed Team Heretics | 63c | 2,000$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260 | 579 | 45.9%266 W · 313 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed Team Heretics | 59c | 1,992$1,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,167.6 | 1,521 | 50.6%769 W · 752 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf38…848bbacked Shifters | 39c | 1,777$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.96 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4068…aeb1backed Team Heretics | 61c | 1,310$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.78 | 154 | 31.8%49 W · 105 L | -18.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0f…1305backed Shifters | 50c | 1,221$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.5 | 1,463 | 61.4%899 W · 564 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Team Heretics | 47c | 1,124$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.3 | 1,061 | 54.7%580 W · 481 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…5172backed Shifters | 39c | 892.66$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.66 | 436 | 40.6%177 W · 259 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Team Heretics | 68c | 887.98$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.82 | 1,609 | 48.4%779 W · 830 L | +24.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…0ff5backed Shifters | 32c | 850$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578 | 594 | 50.2%298 W · 296 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Team Heretics | 36c | 716.67$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 1,170 | 66.2%774 W · 396 L | +69.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa8…cae6backed Shifters | 42c | 495.22$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.23 | 829 | 53.4%443 W · 386 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0f…732abacked Shifters | 73c | 411.06$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.06 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84fe…be09backed Team Heretics | 63c | 410$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.3 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -9.6wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Team Heretics | 33c | 407.54$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.09 | 1,134 | 31%352 W · 782 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…8a71backed Team Heretics | 61c | 398.36$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 479 | 33.6%161 W · 318 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x419e…deb1backed Shifters | 69c | 380$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.4 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Shifters | 40c | 318.77$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.44 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf19…79bbbacked Shifters | 37c | 316.22$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.22 | 168 | 58.9%99 W · 69 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…2075backed Team Heretics | 61c | 300$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 270 | 50.7%137 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…612abacked Shifters | 40c | 270$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 440 | 46.4%204 W · 236 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Team Heretics | 60c | 230$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.08 | 608 | 49.5%301 W · 307 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…46e5backed Team Heretics | 64c | 224.55$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.25 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc83f…23e4backed Team Heretics | 50c | 221.86$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.93 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed Shifters | 41c | 214$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.26 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Team Heretics | 53c | 213$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.61 | 2,226 | 37.5%834 W · 1,392 L | -29.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd28…dbf0backed Team Heretics | 63c | 207$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.41 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07f9…1513backed Team Heretics | 62c | 185.48$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 160 | 35%56 W · 104 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeed6…ec56backed Team Heretics | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 206 | 49.5%102 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa590…271cbacked Team Heretics | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd1…9249backed Shifters | 39c | 120$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.2 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6926…152dbacked Team Heretics | 50c | 100.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 843 | 60.1%507 W · 336 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf301…4ce1backed Team Heretics | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 216 | 22.7%49 W · 167 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…b497backed Team Heretics | 63c | 90$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 390 | 56.4%220 W · 170 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba48…907cbacked Shifters | 51c | 79.72$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 981 | 63.8%626 W · 355 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22a…8259backed Shifters | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 381 | 44.6%170 W · 211 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4e…5973backed Shifters | 43c | 70$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 557 | 44%245 W · 312 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce7…cfaabacked Shifters | 38c | 57.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.57 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Shifters | 38c | 51.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 1,831 | 17.1%313 W · 1,518 L | -236.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -46%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…d5dabacked Team Heretics | 45c | 50.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 238 | 31.5%75 W · 163 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Team Heretics | 22c | 50.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 243 | 56%136 W · 107 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed Team Heretics | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 626 | 49.8%312 W · 314 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2b…d422backed Team Heretics | 59c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf163…ca34backed Shifters | 52c | 44.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 1,477 | 48.3%713 W · 764 L | +45.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c27…21a9backed Team Heretics | 63c | 33.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 143 | 58.7%84 W · 59 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Shifters | 36c | 30.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 2,406 | 42.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L | +21.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Shifters | 38c | 26.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 495 | 14.3%71 W · 424 L | -70.5wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…2cfbbacked Shifters | 68c | 20.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf006…bf1ebacked Shifters | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 692 | 47%325 W · 367 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: SHFT (-1.5) vs Team Heretics (+1.5)this page
- Game Handicap: TH (-1.5) vs Shifters (+1.5)Shifters won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: Team Heretics vs Shifters (BO3) - LEC Regular SeasonShifters won
- LoL: Team Heretics vs Shifters - Game 1 WinnerShifters won
- LoL: Team Heretics vs Shifters - Game 2 WinnerShifters won
- Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 26.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.