MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b4a9224f35de81883bfc806f29acd9da4e4ad49b6f0abd6480fcdbd95f63ca1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,635
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,766
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,635 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3491…5909backed Under | 74c | 4,737$3,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,498 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 50c | 3,281$1,631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,650.37 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 38c | 2,377$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470.02 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 50c | 1,941$961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$961.19 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 31c | 1,916$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,331.33 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 50c | 1,333$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.76 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 53c | 1,172$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.01 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 63c | 1,068$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.62 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 68c | 767.57$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.95 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 31c | 759.49$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.8 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb9…d2f0backed Under | 66c | 757.58$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 66c | 655.45$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.04 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 68c | 390.65$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.16 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 55c | 353.64$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.14 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Over | 46c | 344.04$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.78 | 1,137 | 42.6%484 W · 653 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 70c | 332.89$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.74 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 49c | 306.35$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.24 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 34c | 295.88$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.28 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 50c | 237.66$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.83 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 51c | 231.88$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.03 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 44c | 199.5$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.78 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Under | 50c | 194$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 50c | 101.8$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 42c | 98.66$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.22 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Over | 36c | 93.32$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.49 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Under | 70c | 93.06$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.14 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 51c | 84.66$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x467c…614dbacked Over | 56c | 83.93$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.93 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Under | 51c | 76.66$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 64c | 74.38$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.54 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked Under | 35c | 72.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 58c | 70.69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…f356backed Under | 70c | 61$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 59c | 49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 72c | 38.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 70c | 37.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 34c | 32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe707…e0cfbacked Under | 68c | 29.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58ac…7636backed Under | 51c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 46c | 24.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Over | 55c | 24.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 54c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 58c | 20.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Under | 50c | 20.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a1…d1eebacked Under | 58c | 18.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 72c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Under | 66c | 15.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-4.5)Houston Astros won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Houston AstrosNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.