MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7b768deddee3147a66fa086de2a76de5fc7335e650f96c1ed3fab54210095f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,187
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,983
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,187 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 64c | 4,575$2,922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,652.68 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 52c | 3,698$1,939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,938.52 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 43c | 1,600$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 33c | 1,516$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.24 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 42c | 1,500$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 58c | 1,409$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.22 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189c…c9aebacked Under | 34c | 1,117$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.08 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 55c | 1,104$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.19 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 50c | 1,001$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.4 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 50c | 972.65$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.99 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Over | 43c | 952.38$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.86 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Under | 57c | 880.18$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.7 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 59c | 644.43$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.21 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 62c | 610.14$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.22 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 8c | 600$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 42c | 507$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.06 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 57c | 500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 63c | 421.45$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.3 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 56c | 395.27$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.04 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44e…284abacked Under | 16c | 373.61$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf636…5465backed Over | 41c | 365.17$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.45 | 99 | 56.6%56 W · 43 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 38c | 364.02$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.69 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Under | 33c | 320$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 42c | 317$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.68 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 46c | 301$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.34 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 55c | 274.48$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.53 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 44c | 259$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.04 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 33c | 220.01$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.02 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 58c | 208$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.64 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 47c | 189.27$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.71 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Over | 54c | 182.16$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.79 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Under | 58c | 175$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Over | 41c | 146.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.35 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Over | 41c | 146.34$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.34 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 41c | 119.54$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 63c | 108.31$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.55 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Over | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.56 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 63c | 64.9$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 45c | 56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x205d…2ad2backed Over | 43c | 49.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58ac…7636backed Under | 25c | 44.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 45c | 43.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 24c | 43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 43c | 38.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…5043backed Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Over | 62c | 34.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 56c | 34.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Over | 71c | 33.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…c664backed Over | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 309 | 28.5%88 W · 221 L | -46.7wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Over | 47c | 28.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 42c | 27.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 41c | 25.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 71c | 25.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8541…5c16backed Under | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 47c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 57c | 19.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 63c | 16.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-4.5)Houston Astros won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Houston AstrosNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.