TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Houston Astrosof Texas Rangers, Houston Astros
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$255,581
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$268,120

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $255,581 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3dfb…abafbacked Houston Astros54c133,332$71,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61,332.721,38549.5%685 W · 700 L-4.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Texas Rangers46c75,000$34,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,499.9777053.9%415 W · 355 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Texas Rangers46c27,847$12,808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,807.710,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Texas Rangers46c21,688$9,976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,976.172,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Texas Rangers47c14,894$7,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,0001,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Houston Astros53c7,283$3,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,422.783,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x300b…f636backed Houston Astros54c5,556$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,555.5623357.9%135 W · 98 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd47d…322bbacked Houston Astros53c5,000$2,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,35013552.6%71 W · 64 L+9.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Texas Rangers46c4,782$2,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,202.398,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Texas Rangers8c4,748$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.2179442.4%337 W · 457 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Houston Astros53c4,000$2,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8805,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54d0…8e20backed Houston Astros54c3,704$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,703.732157%183 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Houston Astros55c3,089$1,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,390.0960043.3%260 W · 340 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05e1…85a2backed Texas Rangers12c2,603$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3007160.6%43 W · 28 L+5.4wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc323…0171backed Houston Astros60c2,500$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00019453.6%104 W · 90 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Texas Rangers46c2,434$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,119.641,40248.8%684 W · 718 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb5…d57abacked Texas Rangers45c2,154$969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$969.1621644.9%97 W · 119 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4699…5051backed Texas Rangers11c2,091$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23016814.3%24 W · 144 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+18.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58c3…9cdcbacked Texas Rangers4c1,925$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Texas Rangers4c1,892$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.8412,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Texas Rangers12c1,722$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.162,02139.5%798 W · 1,223 L-25.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Texas Rangers3c1,528$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.031,1807.2%85 W · 1,095 L-13.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9015…281fbacked Texas Rangers4c1,483$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.314153.7%22 W · 19 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd21c…2afcbacked Texas Rangers2c1,424$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.26065%39 W · 21 L+6.4wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x32a7…a84bbacked Texas Rangers1c1,381$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.755534.5%19 W · 36 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+26.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Texas Rangers46c1,324$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.16,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7db…1d90backed Houston Astros54c1,284$693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.6540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e14…fcd1backed Texas Rangers47c1,284$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.4933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-24.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x302b…7a54backed Texas Rangers5c999.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.24219%8 W · 34 L-6.3wins-0.15per pick34cpaid-49.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Texas Rangers4c983.75$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9482636.6%302 W · 524 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Texas Rangers46c975$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.51,55548.9%761 W · 794 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x718f…f25abacked Texas Rangers2c916.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206325.4%16 W · 47 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-40%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb88…0e4cbacked Houston Astros52c891.19$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.7710465.4%68 W · 36 L+8.2wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6193…5b80backed Houston Astros74c802$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.0623146.8%108 W · 123 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55b9…a814backed Texas Rangers7c595.47$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4625447.6%121 W · 133 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa73a…656abacked Houston Astros54c591$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.8657758.1%335 W · 242 L+28.5wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x762a…ed42backed Texas Rangers13c549.3$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7215339.9%61 W · 92 L-10.6wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd692…8b9abacked Texas Rangers3c537.52$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7230529.8%91 W · 214 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Texas Rangers7c500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.661346.3%284 W · 329 L+7.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70e9…836abacked Texas Rangers4c500$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1921323.5%50 W · 163 L-9.2wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe983…93bfbacked Texas Rangers5c499.38$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.831735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-19.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9263…1999backed Texas Rangers3c464.33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.867416.2%12 W · 62 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick7cpaid+74.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xccd8…f4debacked Texas Rangers47c458.33$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.4248147%226 W · 255 L-31.8wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xad7f…d0d4backed Texas Rangers4c416.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153246.9%15 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Texas Rangers49c416.39$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.53,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd52…aa25backed Houston Astros54c405.3$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.4428152%146 W · 135 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b3…145dbacked Houston Astros67c350.75$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.7522055.5%122 W · 98 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x411e…ebf0backed Texas Rangers12c333.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked Texas Rangers4c319.45$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.144643.5%20 W · 26 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87f0…361dbacked Houston Astros54c300$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1389554.7%52 W · 43 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2afc…23c9backed Houston Astros54c300$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1383145.2%14 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Houston Astros56c299.98$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.991,48350.2%745 W · 738 L+5.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d5f…84bfbacked Texas Rangers47c290.11$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.351,05150.4%530 W · 521 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Texas Rangers4c287.9$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.824,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaea5…26e3backed Houston Astros54c277.78$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.7819454.6%106 W · 88 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f87…b872backed Texas Rangers14c267.78$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.31742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Texas Rangers19c265$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3552053.8%280 W · 240 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbcd6…f3c8backed Texas Rangers48c263.07$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.2737546.9%176 W · 199 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Houston Astros65c254.01$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.934,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b13…2f02backed Texas Rangers46c220$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.22060%12 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+25.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xabe3…c19abacked Houston Astros54c218.19$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.374757.4%27 W · 20 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Texas Rangers46c213.31$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.022,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93a0…6623backed Texas Rangers47c210$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.739846.5%185 W · 213 L-16.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Texas Rangers46c200$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$923,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee8a…69acbacked Houston Astros54c194.44$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.4414655.5%81 W · 65 L+0.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9278…9a1bbacked Houston Astros54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.1913057.7%75 W · 55 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Texas Rangers47c184.45$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.792,14439.6%849 W · 1,295 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8936…6c57backed Houston Astros60c166.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.67862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c32…7156backed Texas Rangers46c162$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.71,29950.9%661 W · 638 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75b5…a1f2backed Texas Rangers47c156$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.327647.4%36 W · 40 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Houston Astros77c153.95$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.461,81449.1%891 W · 923 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Texas Rangers46c152.66$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.221,20653.7%648 W · 558 L+29.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros53c150.51$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.7411,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb01d…46f0backed Texas Rangers47c148.94$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701,16849%572 W · 596 L+17.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Texas Rangers47c143.62$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.557548%276 W · 299 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Texas Rangers44c140$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.677050.5%389 W · 381 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked Houston Astros53c137.98$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.8554642.5%232 W · 314 L+7.5wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e6b…8a98backed Texas Rangers46c123$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.5847652.9%252 W · 224 L+17.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0547…fb35backed Texas Rangers46c119.99$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.1973653%390 W · 346 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80e3…14c3backed Houston Astros54c115.74$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.2410155.4%56 W · 45 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0180…b8cdbacked Texas Rangers41c115.49$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.356139.3%24 W · 37 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67be…6e09backed Texas Rangers11c115.48$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.727231.3%85 W · 187 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb1c8…023abacked Houston Astros54c111$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.0615954.7%87 W · 72 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07aa…63bfbacked Texas Rangers47c106.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5019358%112 W · 81 L+0.7wins0.00per pick58cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab61…fb2bbacked Texas Rangers47c106.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508647.7%41 W · 45 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3992…349cbacked Texas Rangers49c102.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5016744.9%75 W · 92 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x461c…f74bbacked Texas Rangers47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477846.2%36 W · 42 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25d5…11fcbacked Houston Astros54c92.59$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.597653.9%41 W · 35 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad54…006abacked Texas Rangers46c92.15$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.3958060.5%351 W · 229 L+30.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9a51…bf4cbacked Texas Rangers49c91$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5927852.2%145 W · 133 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa4f…b174backed Texas Rangers48c90.77$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5740753.3%217 W · 190 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Houston Astros54c88.54$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.731,19550%597 W · 598 L+5.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0576…6232backed Texas Rangers46c81.85$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6535047.4%166 W · 184 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Texas Rangers44c77.27$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3467453%357 W · 317 L+28.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Texas Rangers15c76.89$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.681,12144.1%494 W · 627 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-24.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0977…53ccbacked Houston Astros54c76.8$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.3329250.7%148 W · 144 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0df7…1ec1backed Houston Astros53c76.42$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.9244058.9%259 W · 181 L+29.0wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Texas Rangers44c74.19$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.641,28947.2%609 W · 680 L-18.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0477…631cbacked Houston Astros54c74.07$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.0717155.6%95 W · 76 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x139c…1db1backed Houston Astros55c73.31$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.318356.6%47 W · 36 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.