Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b5e69d6ee2551afa142b49cb21b819227b82c0c93a3d13944bc8c37323c8a9e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,942
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,429
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,942 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 1c | 3,314$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 2c | 1,695$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 4c | 1,097$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.34 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 3c | 1,037$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 2c | 1,026$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…f36fbacked Yes | 3c | 674.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +95.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 7c | 594.21$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3d88…39d8backed Yes | 12c | 503.38$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 376.84$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.28 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 14c | 262.89$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 6c | 256.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 8c | 250.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 23c | 234.57$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 228.37$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 10c | 225.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 21c | 223.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.97 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 220.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 71c | 209.68$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.44 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 28c | 189$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.44 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…4134backed Yes | 11c | 180.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 166.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 26c | 162.17$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 16c | 160.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 18c | 158.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 21c | 144.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 17c | 133.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 68c | 121.85$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.53 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 114.94$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 76c | 109.41$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 77c | 108$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81d0…f1dabacked Yes | 28c | 100.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd417…9438backed No | 74c | 99.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed No | 79c | 94.49$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 22c | 69.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 68.86$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ca…739abacked No | 74c | 67.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 73cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 76c | 64.29$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes | 25c | 64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 163 | 24.5%40 W · 123 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 71c | 62.15$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed No | 73c | 61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d45…266cbacked No | 73c | 60.81$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 75cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 72c | 60.57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 26c | 59.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 79c | 59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 57.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 26c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b28…5b76backed Yes | 26c | 54.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 134 | 16.4%22 W · 112 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 54.09$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 77c | 43.61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked No | 68c | 36.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 29c | 34.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 67c | 34.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 76c | 27.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 76c | 23.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 73c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 72c | 18.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 73c | 18.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7da5…0865backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.