Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3664c8af6caef211b203ef76533e08c0694c5e332affa444245a306019dc16a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,090
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,090 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3d88…39d8backed Yes | 2c | 1,527$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 44c | 1,068$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.46 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ef…f19cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,024$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 67c | 978.94$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.03 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 23c | 973.66$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.82 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 9c | 834.43$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.94 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed No | 78c | 813.36$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.94 | 97 | 83.5%81 W · 16 L | +26.5wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf1…3f67backed Yes | 75c | 597.81$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.86 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 80c | 462.47$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.45 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 36c | 450.75$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.2 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d02…d900backed No | 73c | 395$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.63 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 64c | 392.43$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.63 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…2c8bbacked Yes | 28c | 378.12$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.75 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | +5.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked No | 70c | 358.46$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.22 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 39c | 322.61$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.2 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 311.59$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.33 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 309.1$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.55 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 48c | 307.06$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.77 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 78c | 300.01$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.11 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked No | 32c | 300$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2011…845bbacked No | 72c | 292.9$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.57 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 10c | 288.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.55 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 29c | 275.36$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.56 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 21c | 263.36$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.45 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 23c | 232.25$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.86 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 65c | 199.41$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.45 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed Yes | 27c | 199.41$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.47 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 29c | 193.79$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.32 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1c…ebffbacked Yes | 65c | 193.31$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.16 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 26c | 174.53$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.73 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 70c | 170.19$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.8 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 47c | 167.44$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.42 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 149.76$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.59 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed No | 15c | 140$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.55 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 58c | 136.77$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.55 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99a5…95cfbacked Yes | 23c | 119.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 46c | 115.97$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.46 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked No | 27c | 113.69$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 29c | 112.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 23c | 111.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 65c | 110.42$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 73c | 109.23$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa06…b796backed Yes | 57c | 103.7$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 13c | 103.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.76 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 63c | 101.3$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.53 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0d…3e25backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 15c | 97.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 11c | 96.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.63 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…4134backed Yes | 31c | 95.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 53c | 90.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.79 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 52c | 90$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 17c | 90$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3932…854abacked No | 22c | 89.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 88.04$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 45c | 86.11$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.81 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 30c | 85.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 23c | 84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.9 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 71c | 82.1$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.88 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 78c | 77.87$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 17c | 76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 68c | 75.34$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.34 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ae…8f23backed Yes | 16c | 73.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 42c | 69.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.97 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26e8…4c39backed Yes | 17c | 68.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 38c | 67.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 33c | 64.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes | 19c | 64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 163 | 24.5%40 W · 123 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Yes | 24c | 60.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 68c | 56.45$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 48c | 52.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe493…ebbfbacked No | 79c | 50.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 55c | 45.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 44.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b28…5b76backed Yes | 24c | 44.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 134 | 16.4%22 W · 112 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 69c | 42.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 75c | 41.85$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 80c | 40.69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 39c | 39.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 33c | 39.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 39.32$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 46c | 38.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 78c | 36.41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…d496backed Yes | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 44c | 33.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked No | 44c | 33.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 44c | 32.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x837c…d774backed Yes | 46c | 31.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…a02bbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked No | 44c | 29.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0412…d9c2backed No | 46c | 29.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 59c | 28.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 54c | 28.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 77c | 26.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 78c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecef…4551backed No | 78c | 25.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 24.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.