Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa095d0f1a756ab6641451eb9c8edcf3427fe76ed32f7598d0afd6fd7ad735ad3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,851
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,085
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,851 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 9c | 1,747$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,591.72 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 52c | 964.07$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.15 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 59c | 542.97$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.13 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 497.69$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.07 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 12c | 412.76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…2c8bbacked Yes | 62c | 406.12$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.49 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | +5.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 53c | 380.15$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.14 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 77c | 349.55$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.96 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 309.1$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.17 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d88…39d8backed Yes | 40c | 297.06$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.06 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 73c | 296.68$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.38 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed Yes | 45c | 287.72$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.72 | 97 | 83.5%81 W · 16 L | +26.5wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 52c | 271.73$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.92 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 59c | 263.03$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.72 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 61c | 245.91$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.17 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…4134backed Yes | 34c | 245.13$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.73 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 8c | 223.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 32c | 208.21$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.75 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 52c | 200.7$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.92 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 48c | 187.19$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.24 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 19c | 185.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.81 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 184.85$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.88 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed No | 43c | 162.2$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.8 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae5b…ab1bbacked Yes | 32c | 160.89$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.79 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +106%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 44c | 151.8$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.4 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 66c | 150.21$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.19 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 11c | 147.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.18 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 8c | 143.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.74 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 20c | 142.69$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.69 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 47c | 141.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.79 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 65c | 140.24$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.44 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 63c | 137.81$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.07 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 44c | 131.98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.54 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 32c | 125.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.52 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 43c | 123.86$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 54c | 122.94$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.78 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 30c | 113.57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 47c | 112.39$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.08 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 53c | 109.24$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.35 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 41c | 105.95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81d0…f1dabacked Yes | 60c | 102.2$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 64c | 102$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 44c | 101.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ce…edf2backed No | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb908…d807backed Yes | 52c | 96.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 25c | 93.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 60c | 93.22$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.93 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 63c | 90.21$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 38c | 86.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.08 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 51c | 83.65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.29 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0d…3e25backed Yes | 60c | 83.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 54c | 82.78$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.78 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…f36fbacked Yes | 16c | 80.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.39 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +95.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 58c | 79.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 14c | 77.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.72 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 61c | 76.37$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 70c | 75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 201 | 73.1%147 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 72.86$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe67f…eefdbacked No | 80c | 69.4$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.3wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 74c | 68.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.37 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 60c | 66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 68c | 62.45$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 29c | 62.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd170…a9d9backed Yes | 44c | 59.48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 46c | 58.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa1…4674backed Yes | 42c | 58.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.85 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 43c | 57.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 43c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…e5c8backed Yes | 19c | 51.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.64 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +56%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 40c | 50.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0493…8d1cbacked Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b28…5b76backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.17 | 134 | 16.4%22 W · 112 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 57c | 49.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…afc6backed Yes | 59c | 48.46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa06…b796backed Yes | 59c | 47.7$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc10b…96d5backed Yes | 58c | 46.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f86…0b92backed No | 40c | 46.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 45c | 46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2f…362bbacked Yes | 60c | 45.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 59c | 44.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes | 58c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 48c | 41.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 42c | 41.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 24c | 41.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 39c | 40.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e94…5b9dbacked Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 46c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked Yes | 54c | 39.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 56c | 38.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 61c | 38.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x640c…7010backed No | 41c | 38.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 29c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.