MLB · resolved market
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b6de946848820d860bd28928cd6ca8bb29823f77b7d614bffe6e739a43d3105
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Arizona Diamondbacks, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,272
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,356
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,272 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals | 65c | 13,593$8,838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,754.77 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 34c | 10,125$3,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,441.13 | 1,078 | 48.1%518 W · 560 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfae1…fdc1backed Washington Nationals | 67c | 3,399$2,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,121.67 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 33c | 3,399$1,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,121.67 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 32c | 3,276$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.76 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbf…70a1backed Washington Nationals | 68c | 3,096$2,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990.71 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 34c | 1,597$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.98 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Washington Nationals | 62c | 1,285$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.54 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 33c | 1,054$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.38 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Washington Nationals | 66c | 1,018$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.42 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 44c | 832$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.08 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 36c | 442.08$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.63 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 34c | 362$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.48 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 34c | 323.55$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 45c | 314.03$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.64 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 51c | 225.99$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.62 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 214.3$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.58 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Washington Nationals | 67c | 165$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.45 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Washington Nationals | 67c | 98.98$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 1,240 | 58.1%721 W · 519 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 33c | 75.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 411 | 41.4%170 W · 241 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…7a9fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 33c | 68.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -10.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 16c | 67.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Washington Nationals | 56c | 61.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…dbabbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 33c | 60.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 59.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 31c | 55.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 34c | 54.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Washington Nationals | 67c | 48.7$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 168 | 51.8%87 W · 81 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 47c | 48.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 31c | 38.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 33.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Washington Nationals | 66c | 33.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Washington Nationals | 48c | 30.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 30.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 27.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Washington Nationals | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,819 | 49.3%896 W · 923 L | -24.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4b…0a04backed Washington Nationals | 69c | 24.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 175 | 50.3%88 W · 87 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Washington Nationals | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Washington Nationals | 67c | 18.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 965 | 53%511 W · 454 L | +18.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.