MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa713fcbac119e437da7a3fd240079b35e2a39eb22f6a79ecba520010057be16e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,541
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,993
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,541 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d5e…7004backed Under | 79c | 3,854$3,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.31 | 217 | 67.7%147 W · 70 L | +36.1wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 43c | 3,000$1,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,710 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 19c | 2,432$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,961.49 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 39c | 1,961$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.12 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 11c | 1,426$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.2 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc57…2b3cbacked Over | 51c | 1,373$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 67c | 1,302$872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.58 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 57c | 1,273$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.5 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 8c | 730$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.22 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 43c | 672.51$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.15 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 43c | 511.65$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.64 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 74c | 446.51$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.6 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 43c | 440$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.8 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 57c | 438.6$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 45c | 422.18$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.73 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 75c | 399$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.25 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 37c | 336.09$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.78 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25ae…76c6backed Over | 57c | 292$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.44 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 43c | 245.39$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.87 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1d…f2dfbacked Over | 48c | 221$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.6 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Over | 48c | 209.82$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.41 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 54c | 207.95$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.95 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 41c | 162.62$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.3 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x886e…afd6backed Over | 57c | 154.39$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Over | 65c | 147.31$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.24 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf15e…80b5backed Over | 63c | 143$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.32 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 57c | 130$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Over | 57c | 130$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 423 | 55.6%235 W · 188 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 66c | 95.14$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.79 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Over | 49c | 91.18$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.29 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8cd…ed53backed Over | 63c | 81.78$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.54 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 43c | 74.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.29 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 43c | 68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 43c | 65.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 74c | 60.52$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Over | 51c | 60.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…7a9fbacked Over | 27c | 54.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -10.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 55c | 52.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 48c | 46.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94ba…4d1abacked Over | 75c | 35.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.18per pick | 71cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…a79abacked Over | 53c | 28.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 47c | 24.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 66c | 21.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0882…dceabacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.