TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Washington Nationalsof Washington Nationals, Arizona Diamondbacks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$82,264
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$88,954

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,264 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x84db…aeebbacked Arizona Diamondbacks60c22,416$13,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,512.0726056.5%147 W · 113 L+13.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Washington Nationals40c12,802$5,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,683.121,85153.1%982 W · 869 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Washington Nationals40c10,231$4,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,188.141,29151%658 W · 633 L-15.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals39c8,183$3,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,990.4711,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d16…212ebacked Washington Nationals40c7,216$2,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,329.8920648.1%99 W · 107 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc163…aed8backed Washington Nationals40c6,250$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,7502454.2%13 W · 11 L+3.1wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+7.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9f15…bdb3backed Arizona Diamondbacks60c5,103$3,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,061.9377647.4%368 W · 408 L+1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks60c5,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00033852.7%178 W · 160 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks60c4,676$2,809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,809.126,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Arizona Diamondbacks60c4,544$2,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,720.194,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Washington Nationals40c3,203$1,281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,921.764,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd47d…322bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks59c3,095$1,826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,825.9913552.6%71 W · 64 L+9.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7609…6c4ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks61c2,000$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2201225%3 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-49.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks33c1,969$658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.64,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks40c1,674$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.142,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Washington Nationals72c1,639$1,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.524,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Arizona Diamondbacks61c1,351$817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$817.123,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c98…f4f4backed Washington Nationals40c1,250$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7506749.3%33 W · 34 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Arizona Diamondbacks45c720.63$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.552750.1%264 W · 263 L+19.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Arizona Diamondbacks31c649.36$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.814,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7677…37c0backed Arizona Diamondbacks59c600$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35432850%164 W · 164 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Arizona Diamondbacks61c600$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3631,00148.3%483 W · 518 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Arizona Diamondbacks60c550.33$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.361,20653.7%648 W · 558 L+29.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Washington Nationals63c517.23$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.862,01251.2%1,031 W · 981 L+43.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals45c505.92$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27610,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Washington Nationals60c500.86$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.151,86552%970 W · 895 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed Arizona Diamondbacks61c440.83$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.0128154.4%153 W · 128 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks60c437.46$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.481,83650.8%932 W · 904 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Arizona Diamondbacks60c432$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.295252.9%504 W · 448 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Arizona Diamondbacks59c390$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.11,55548.9%761 W · 794 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals32c379.25$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.4212,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb428…74c8backed Washington Nationals40c325$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19544245.5%201 W · 241 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad99…dbabbacked Arizona Diamondbacks60c303$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.813048.5%63 W · 67 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Nationals39c267.07$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.918,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Arizona Diamondbacks60c259.5$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.181,77749.5%880 W · 897 L+25.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbca…ca8dbacked Washington Nationals40c250$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15043247%203 W · 229 L-19.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x256b…97bbbacked Washington Nationals41c243.9$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.939149.1%192 W · 199 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Arizona Diamondbacks35c222.82$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.614,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Arizona Diamondbacks44c208.04$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.348,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea60…e977backed Washington Nationals41c200$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1182133.3%7 W · 14 L-3.8wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-32.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Washington Nationals31c191.99$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.475,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc22e…eab8backed Arizona Diamondbacks52c179.18$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.8948851.6%252 W · 236 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5dc8…e209backed Arizona Diamondbacks53c174.55$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.3746152.1%240 W · 221 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42c7…c415backed Arizona Diamondbacks44c160.34$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.2212050.8%61 W · 59 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6fb…ee11backed Arizona Diamondbacks60c156.25$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.7565549.3%323 W · 332 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Washington Nationals75c152.9$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.851,20558.8%708 W · 497 L+31.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc919…d1ddbacked Arizona Diamondbacks61c145.83$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.266055%33 W · 27 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Washington Nationals65c138.46$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.466,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Arizona Diamondbacks61c124$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.022,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Washington Nationals66c120.21$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.871,37950.6%698 W · 681 L-2.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x789c…0d10backed Washington Nationals44c111.14$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.5528749.5%142 W · 145 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Washington Nationals39c104.99$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.041,56951.1%801 W · 768 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x212b…0ba5backed Arizona Diamondbacks50c100.37$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5053655.8%299 W · 237 L+22.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x070f…ed83backed Arizona Diamondbacks61c100$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614257.1%24 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c80…e19bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks49c91.25$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0122450%112 W · 112 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e52…23acbacked Arizona Diamondbacks61c90.38$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.13450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0b4…9dc2backed Washington Nationals40c75$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459147.3%43 W · 48 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks60c67.49$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.662,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2792…c4f6backed Washington Nationals66c66.71$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.6873949.8%368 W · 371 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Washington Nationals69c66.3$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.832,14439.6%849 W · 1,295 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Washington Nationals66c61.36$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.912,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ca3…9613backed Washington Nationals75c61.33$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3322867.1%153 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1a3…d760backed Washington Nationals41c60.43$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.9324444.7%109 W · 135 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37bd…ed2abacked Arizona Diamondbacks61c60$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7913153.4%70 W · 61 L+0.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b6e…f544backed Arizona Diamondbacks51c53.49$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0534139.9%136 W · 205 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cdf…58e1backed Arizona Diamondbacks49c50.58$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9946255.8%258 W · 204 L+21.3wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f3d…95b1backed Arizona Diamondbacks60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3028639.2%112 W · 174 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c31…5380backed Washington Nationals40c48.18$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.915250%26 W · 26 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xae8c…dc39backed Arizona Diamondbacks61c47.54$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292040%8 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-18.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6701…d7d2backed Washington Nationals60c47$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.813545.2%61 W · 74 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b9b…7a9fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks37c46.89$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.28234.1%28 W · 54 L-10.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-30.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3555…208ebacked Washington Nationals66c45.45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4513666.2%90 W · 46 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+12.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2892…e9d7backed Arizona Diamondbacks61c45$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4534846.8%163 W · 185 L-12.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c58…e330backed Arizona Diamondbacks73c37.27$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.188053.8%473 W · 407 L+41.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Washington Nationals66c37.06$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.61,73349%849 W · 884 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e4d…1cb0backed Arizona Diamondbacks65c36.25$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.563954.5%348 W · 291 L+14.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x914a…9642backed Arizona Diamondbacks51c34.98$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.997139.4%28 W · 43 L-8.9wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-26.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4c1e…befebacked Arizona Diamondbacks45c33.64$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1528553%151 W · 134 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e4b…0a04backed Arizona Diamondbacks58c33.57$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4717550.3%88 W · 87 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks61c30$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.151,17249.1%575 W · 597 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd75a…d264backed Arizona Diamondbacks69c29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.015536.4%20 W · 35 L-4.8wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8543…ff1bbacked Washington Nationals39c27.95$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9310143.6%44 W · 57 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66c0…5fc2backed Arizona Diamondbacks60c26.67$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1625256.7%143 W · 109 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb856…6de5backed Washington Nationals40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151973.7%14 W · 5 L+4.5wins+0.24per pick50cpaid+46.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x82f3…5cd4backed Arizona Diamondbacks47c24$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.186240.3%25 W · 37 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff70…78abbacked Arizona Diamondbacks61c23.43$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.291872.2%13 W · 5 L+3.9wins+0.21per pick51cpaid+44.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7dae…7199backed Arizona Diamondbacks59c17.54$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3513151.1%67 W · 64 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.