MLB · resolved market
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0e0625a069eef3c3c264f19225a5da26fba6aabf0da2b9469f7812a477a2512
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof Washington Nationals, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,071
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,044
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,071 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals | 28c | 6,644$1,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,875.14 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 70c | 3,528$2,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,072.85 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 71c | 2,820$2,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.8 | 712 | 53.4%380 W · 332 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Nationals | 41c | 1,233$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.57 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 1,196$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.05 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 1,069$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.69 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Washington Nationals | 29c | 758.65$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Washington Nationals | 49c | 554.21$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.19 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 500.99$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.4 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 461.08$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.48 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 78c | 349.2$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.31 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Washington Nationals | 30c | 253$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.22 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Washington Nationals | 44c | 250$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Washington Nationals | 29c | 233.84$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.81 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 70c | 216$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.08 | 965 | 53%511 W · 454 L | +18.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 114 | 57%65 W · 49 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Washington Nationals | 30c | 170$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals | 40c | 158.96$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.01 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Washington Nationals | 46c | 140.6$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 484 | 45.9%222 W · 262 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Washington Nationals | 34c | 137$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.31 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 71c | 114$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 50c | 108.37$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.46 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Washington Nationals | 31c | 105.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Washington Nationals | 30c | 103.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 448 | 45.8%205 W · 243 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 70c | 103.33$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 72c | 97$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 131 | 53.4%70 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…dbabbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 70c | 77.93$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Washington Nationals | 29c | 67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Washington Nationals | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 71c | 58.8$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 802 | 55%441 W · 361 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Washington Nationals | 28c | 57.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Washington Nationals | 29c | 56.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a1…296fbacked Washington Nationals | 30c | 56.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 71c | 55.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 1,219 | 53.9%657 W · 562 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Washington Nationals | 46c | 42.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1,819 | 49.3%896 W · 923 L | -24.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…7a9fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 66c | 42.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -10.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 41.35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Washington Nationals | 28c | 40.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 657 | 49.2%323 W · 334 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 43c | 37.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Washington Nationals | 59c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…cc57backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 79c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4b…0a04backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 30.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 175 | 50.3%88 W · 87 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 1,481 | 63.5%940 W · 541 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.