Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bb0ffc2e326f12d9fe75ab70d876725284622e5ebaa6c5a485845ca9027d9fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,140
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 175 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 40c | 2,741$1,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,094.58 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 66c | 1,591$1,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.6 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63ad…c072backed No | 10c | 1,159$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.7 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe906…5a44backed No | 69c | 997.28$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.26 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 46cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 10c | 981.32$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.04 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdc89…095cbacked No | 11c | 981$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.82 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5130…818bbacked No | 13c | 938.59$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.02 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -52%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 74c | 802.84$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.02 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1a…47a3backed No | 8c | 615.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 19c | 593.89$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.5 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 8c | 578.21$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 80c | 520$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.58 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 41c | 490$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.14 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 465.95$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ead…f333backed Yes | 32c | 448.73$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.37 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3088…bd14backed No | 9c | 390.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 24cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 40c | 366.62$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.58 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 36c | 365.02$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.35 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 57c | 358.14$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.32 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 79c | 352.17$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.46 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed Yes | 26c | 339.25$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.26 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 41c | 333.3$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.76 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 9c | 320.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 64c | 319.91$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.31 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 35c | 301.47$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.21 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 56c | 274.21$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.51 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfb…cc11backed Yes | 28c | 246.33$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 38c | 241.94$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.32 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 35c | 229.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.49 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe27a…06f8backed Yes | 35c | 226.36$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.98 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecd…3923backed No | 11c | 221.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -80%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 32c | 213.02$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.8 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 36c | 200$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf13e…5841backed No | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 38c | 186.44$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.65 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 28c | 183.87$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.81 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed No | 16c | 180.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 177.55$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.52 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2b…5271backed No | 9c | 176.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked No | 10c | 163.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…e5babacked No | 64c | 158.33$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.33 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 51c | 153.13$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.6 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…9a6abacked No | 71c | 151.69$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.53 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 26c | 149.93$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.45 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 36c | 149.56$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.29 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9a…8e18backed No | 16c | 145.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed No | 10c | 144.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 66c | 137.31$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.29 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 28c | 137.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.48 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 73c | 135.54$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.06 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 130.32$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.07 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 23c | 129.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed Yes | 30c | 127.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.58 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 61c | 125.5$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.43 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 33c | 121.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.5 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 29c | 121.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.13 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 10c | 120.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 39c | 118.95$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.56 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed No | 10c | 117.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 50c | 116.37$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.68 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 36c | 112.38$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.38 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 28c | 110$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.7 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 19c | 109$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.05 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed No | 21c | 108.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 33c | 105.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.47 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked No | 10c | 104.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.43 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 30c | 96.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.69 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 61c | 95.45$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.33 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc29…b3b6backed No | 14c | 93.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4650…8be6backed No | 15c | 90.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed No | 14c | 89.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 25c | 89.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.97 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ca…ccdebacked Yes | 36c | 88.79$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.48 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 68c | 86.16$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.63 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9d…f963backed Yes | 28c | 84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.48 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4876…22e2backed Yes | 27c | 80.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.75 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 47c | 80.44$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.44 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 35c | 78.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 65c | 78.06$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 62c | 77.09$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 38c | 76.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.17 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 59c | 75.89$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…b1b2backed No | 18c | 71.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…b97abacked Yes | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.29 | 175 | 36.6%64 W · 111 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 38c | 68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 30c | 66.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd912…32a2backed Yes | 24c | 65.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.44 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 16c | 62.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 25c | 60.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.67 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c12…b669backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9812…913dbacked Yes | 32c | 59.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +25%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3087…5250backed No | 36c | 58.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 26c | 56.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 80°F or higher on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.