Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4050beb5c08fdaa877bf6816b309ea86781588412e8ff0b90f980274fceeef3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,221
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $112,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,221 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed Yes | 0c | 47,289$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 55c | 2,061$1,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,135.22 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 18c | 706.45$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.38 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe77d…7383backed No | 44c | 704.13$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.4 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 65c | 534.19$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.72 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 69c | 333.3$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.39 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 55c | 329.98$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.39 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf13e…5841backed Yes | 10c | 329.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 61c | 318.43$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.73 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…e5babacked No | 46c | 313.03$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.4 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 38c | 292.14$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.21 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe906…5a44backed Yes | 56c | 283.54$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.75 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 46cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 60c | 274.73$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.02 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 11c | 254.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 11c | 253.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 57c | 247.79$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.16 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 49c | 245.19$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.76 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 43c | 243.68$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.02 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 31c | 218.48$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.73 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdafd…2ad4backed No | 69c | 203.14$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.02 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 62c | 194.35$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.71 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 54c | 186.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 35c | 177.5$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.54 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a96…8331backed Yes | 65c | 164.91$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 28c | 158.81$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.41 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 70c | 158.03$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.26 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 37c | 149.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 142.1$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.73 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 50c | 141$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.14 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 131.39$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.92 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc04…f59dbacked No | 70c | 131.16$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.61 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 41c | 130$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.7 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.9 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 54c | 126.31$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.43 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 60c | 125.43$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.75 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 13c | 119$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ca…ccdebacked Yes | 46c | 117.14$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.44 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 61c | 109$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.4 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 62c | 103.57$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 61c | 103.52$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 55c | 102.49$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…15e9backed Yes | 49c | 101.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 50c | 99.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed No | 46c | 92.71$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.25 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 51cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3087…5250backed Yes | 28c | 91.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 35c | 90.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb5…b11bbacked Yes | 17c | 87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9d…f963backed Yes | 49c | 84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 83$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 40c | 79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.59 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fb…427abacked No | 36c | 77.78$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.78 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 76.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1717…1f7cbacked No | 65c | 73.18$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 56c | 71.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f97…6f2dbacked Yes | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 38c | 68.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.49 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 46c | 68.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 43c | 64.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 66c | 64.54$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.59 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 41c | 61.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.29 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 49c | 61.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 49c | 61.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…fae1backed Yes | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9812…913dbacked Yes | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +25%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 34c | 57.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.93 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 36c | 57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 38c | 55.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 37c | 54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddbf…b1aebacked Yes | 47c | 50.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70a…0883backed No | 58c | 50.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 78 | 66.7%52 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 65c | 50.3$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23b9…cd97backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +116.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…108abacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…2cfebacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 65c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x635a…cccbbacked Yes | 40c | 48.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 78c | 48.69$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 49c | 48.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed Yes | 61c | 48.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 40c | 47.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 39c | 46.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 59c | 46.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 43c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 62c | 44.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 58c | 43.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 52c | 43.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 39c | 42.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ad…ff75backed Yes | 35c | 41.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 50c | 41.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 41.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 80°F or higher on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.