Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bc66cf22d03ecb94d3e9f2a06a2648b5fd3ff6b44d08f62febf595a525f7978
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,278
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,834
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,278 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 44c | 1,029$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.81 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 50c | 318.08$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.05 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 46c | 300.93$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.83 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 47c | 230.26$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.36 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 56c | 198.08$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.92 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 28c | 191.76$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.35 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 56c | 182.24$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 45c | 175$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.14 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 25c | 170$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed No | 55c | 116.15$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.39 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 51c | 104.6$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.26 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 39c | 101.19$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.19 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 98.85$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.96 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 47c | 98.03$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.96 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed Yes | 47c | 98.03$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.96 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 48c | 90$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.01 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 44c | 88$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.94 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 34c | 84.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 52c | 76.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 75.73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.41 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 41c | 72.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 65.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 54c | 59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 52c | 59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 44c | 58.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed Yes | 49c | 55.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 31c | 53.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 46c | 49.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 52c | 47.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 57c | 41.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 58c | 38.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 41c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 46c | 37.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 54c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 47c | 35.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 44c | 34.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 30.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 45c | 29.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 48c | 25.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 44c | 24.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 59c | 18.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked No | 56c | 18.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6de6…f3e4backed No | 59c | 17.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42c0…b200backed Yes | 69c | 16.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.