Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bf50d8af7523bbe13b21f2a46637d8545ed7f5413f7053d77341476bb121d87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,673
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,056
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,673 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 14c | 1,300$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.16 | 308 | 24.4%75 W · 233 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 1c | 1,248$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 1,866 | 25.4%474 W · 1,392 L | +134.7wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,021$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 1,000 | 14.8%148 W · 852 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 1c | 815.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 611 | 22.7%139 W · 472 L | +13.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…9668backed Yes | 17c | 550.52$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.01 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 499.84$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.41 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa16…b066backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 9c | 399.54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 181 | 26.5%48 W · 133 L | +12.3wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0048…5861backed Yes | 13c | 377.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 4c | 367.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 363 | 26.4%96 W · 267 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 32c | 332.34$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 706 | 45.8%323 W · 383 L | +16.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 300$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.87 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 70c | 171$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.15 | 4,313 | 53.6%2,311 W · 2,002 L | +158.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 21c | 170.42$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 11c | 153.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 985 | 13.8%136 W · 849 L | +34.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 78c | 133.26$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 16c | 115.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…fc0fbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 202 | 34.7%70 W · 132 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 599 | 21.5%129 W · 470 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 424 | 52.8%224 W · 200 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 33c | 88.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 130 | 27.7%36 W · 94 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 26c | 79.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 18c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 70c | 72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed No | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 70c | 58.28$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 1,632 | 60.7%990 W · 642 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 28c | 52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7c…8785backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 30c | 46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 44.53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 42.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 73c | 29.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 726 | 20.4%148 W · 578 L | -46.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd4…81dcbacked No | 64c | 23.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 29 | 79.3%23 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 67cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…b1f2backed No | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 75c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 493 | 63.5%313 W · 180 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…1ca0backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x743d…5abdbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 68c | 18.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 941 | 62.3%586 W · 355 L | -24.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd0…3aaebacked No | 75c | 13.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.