Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ac3ed35927e020c994800f83d3e9c52b94ec6eadcc6f6abae1213db81400254
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,089
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,489
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,089 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf888…9668backed Yes | 7c | 5,649$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.19 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 78c | 2,433$1,907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.84 | 174 | 48.3%84 W · 90 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 14c | 2,071$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.53 | 308 | 24.4%75 W · 233 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,473$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.64 | 1,000 | 14.8%148 W · 852 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…e5c8backed Yes | 3c | 1,333$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 78 | 9%7 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 14c | 953.78$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.7 | 412 | 26.5%109 W · 303 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc4…c720backed Yes | 3c | 777$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 19c | 559.37$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.18 | 363 | 26.4%96 W · 267 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 28c | 554.77$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.03 | 570 | 36.7%209 W · 361 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 35c | 527.69$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.87 | 100 | 31%31 W · 69 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 73c | 514.45$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.59 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 14c | 479.34$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.07 | 3,939 | 23.2%913 W · 3,026 L | +125.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 23c | 414.1$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.07 | 181 | 26.5%48 W · 133 L | +12.3wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 18c | 350.85$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.94 | 1,866 | 25.4%474 W · 1,392 L | +134.7wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa16…b066backed Yes | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 260.04$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.01 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes | 11c | 236.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cc…c67abacked Yes | 31c | 228.94$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.67 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d1…6c34backed Yes | 7c | 226.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +97.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 68c | 211.38$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.6 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7c…8b83backed Yes | 31c | 196.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 65c | 194$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.65 | 731 | 38.7%283 W · 448 L | +36.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 28c | 187.68$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.67 | 214 | 23.8%51 W · 163 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa387…3d3cbacked Yes | 29c | 170$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 69c | 168.53$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.04 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 25c | 164$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.29 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 25c | 160.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 474 | 33.1%157 W · 317 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 20c | 154.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 36c | 150$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.64 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked No | 74c | 149.85$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.93 | 87 | 63.2%55 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 8c | 148.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 72c | 134.66$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb216…e994backed No | 47c | 124.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.25 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 12c | 124.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 71c | 123.42$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.22 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 115.09$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 68c | 113.19$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 31c | 112.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 1,615 | 23.9%386 W · 1,229 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 52c | 104.63$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.12 | 1,451 | 52.3%759 W · 692 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fb…db4fbacked Yes | 11c | 102.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 201 | 45.3%91 W · 110 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,335 | 50.9%680 W · 655 L | -35.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 599 | 21.5%129 W · 470 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7c…8785backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…b52cbacked Yes | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 57c | 99.55$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.23 | 346 | 67.6%234 W · 112 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes | 21c | 98.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc04a…403abacked No | 78c | 95.92$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 28c | 95.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 611 | 22.7%139 W · 472 L | +13.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa16c…7936backed No | 60c | 95$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 94.87$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 31c | 94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 501 | 23.8%119 W · 382 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 67c | 93.84$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 70c | 90.14$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 65c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 465 | 59.1%275 W · 190 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 35c | 86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 130 | 27.7%36 W · 94 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 85$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 3,835 | 61.1%2,345 W · 1,490 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 29c | 84.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2028…cacdbacked Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 75c | 79.97$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 78$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 65c | 78$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 580 | 53.4%310 W · 270 L | -26.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 71c | 76.3$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 65c | 75.61$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec7…2fa1backed No | 66c | 74.71$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fef…194bbacked Yes | 27c | 74.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 67c | 72.97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 55c | 71.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 147 | 42.2%62 W · 85 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9053…fb1cbacked Yes | 26c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07f5…d680backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 27 | 81.5%22 W · 5 L | +6.1wins | +0.23per pick | 59cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 65.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 33c | 63.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed No | 70c | 63.49$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 64c | 63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 291 | 48.8%142 W · 149 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 66c | 61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…62b4backed Yes | 52c | 58.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 67c | 56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 2,043 | 61.7%1,261 W · 782 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed No | 59c | 54.6$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 493 | 32.9%162 W · 331 L | +23.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 67c | 52.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 65c | 51.19$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 279 | 44.4%124 W · 155 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 75c | 50.9$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 3,426 | 31.1%1,066 W · 2,360 L | -38.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0732…4098backed Yes | 32c | 50.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ed…203abacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…c7a8backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…acdfbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b8…b102backed Yes | 36c | 47.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…c550backed Yes | 60c | 47.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbe…d541backed Yes | 22c | 46.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 34c | 46.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 202 | 34.7%70 W · 132 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…c5bbbacked Yes | 36c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 77c | 44.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 269 | 60.2%162 W · 107 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 66c | 40.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 726 | 20.4%148 W · 578 L | -46.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 30c | 40.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 70c | 40.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 144 | 55.6%80 W · 64 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,184 | 57.4%680 W · 504 L | +24.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.