Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70bcc805f9109c321c05539a934afcbd3e4cefa9a56ce485ccaa2de8258512f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,693
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,353
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,693 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 1c | 4,519$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 985 | 13.8%136 W · 849 L | +34.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 8c | 2,585$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.29 | 611 | 22.7%139 W · 472 L | +13.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 25c | 2,395$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.39 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 33c | 2,278$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530.26 | 356 | 29.8%106 W · 250 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 6c | 1,980$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.96 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 9c | 1,718$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.92 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 31c | 1,014$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 477 | 58.7%280 W · 197 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 50c | 884.88$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.12 | 570 | 36.7%209 W · 361 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 15c | 776.74$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.45 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 13c | 751.82$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.44 | 1,615 | 23.9%386 W · 1,229 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 44c | 699.32$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.82 | 726 | 20.4%148 W · 578 L | -46.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 24c | 662.52$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.57 | 1,866 | 25.4%474 W · 1,392 L | +134.7wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc9…9ec4backed Yes | 21c | 600$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.53 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 32c | 594.99$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.81 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 53c | 499.97$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.06 | 363 | 26.4%96 W · 267 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 7c | 475.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cc…c67abacked Yes | 55c | 435.56$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.69 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0d…98d2backed Yes | 70c | 424.84$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.19 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f2…c000backed Yes | 17c | 414.26$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.26 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…9668backed Yes | 61c | 388.95$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.53 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 75c | 364.84$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 24c | 340.04$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.31 | 501 | 23.8%119 W · 382 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 47c | 286$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.68 | 305 | 26.9%82 W · 223 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 27c | 276.62$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.54 | 731 | 38.7%283 W · 448 L | +36.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 7c | 268.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d7…1d8dbacked Yes | 76c | 256.04$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb216…e994backed No | 34c | 249.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.25 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa16c…7936backed No | 33c | 242.21$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.26 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 63c | 235.36$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.95 | 308 | 28.2%87 W · 221 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked No | 59c | 231.94$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.24 | 147 | 42.2%62 W · 85 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…b52cbacked Yes | 27c | 224$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.52 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 24c | 210.65$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.97 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 71c | 207.36$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.38 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Yes | 63c | 201.62$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.48 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 41c | 199.99$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.99 | 181 | 26.5%48 W · 133 L | +12.3wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 77c | 193.97$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.1 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb1…c27dbacked Yes | 62c | 187.5$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 63c | 177.99$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.17 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 170.61$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.17 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 48c | 169.15$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.92 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 29c | 164.52$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.74 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 157.88$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.73 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 56c | 150$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.68 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e93…0a5cbacked Yes | 67c | 146.9$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 71c | 138.6$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.41 | 1,048 | 68.7%720 W · 328 L | -33.6wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 22c | 137.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.68 | 130 | 27.7%36 W · 94 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 38c | 128.32$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 72c | 126.92$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked Yes | 77c | 125.29$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 87 | 63.2%55 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b8…b102backed Yes | 55c | 125.12$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.8 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 18c | 123.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 72c | 122.78$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 3,426 | 31.1%1,066 W · 2,360 L | -38.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 54c | 115.49$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.52 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0018…83a4backed No | 27c | 115.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 61c | 104.77$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.24 | 1,632 | 60.7%990 W · 642 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 65c | 104.63$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.23 | 1,451 | 52.3%759 W · 692 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 45c | 100.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 201 | 45.3%91 W · 110 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 512 | 35.9%184 W · 328 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaad…255cbacked Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.48 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 493 | 32.9%162 W · 331 L | +23.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed No | 79c | 99.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.99 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 72c | 98.52$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.53 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…c550backed No | 47c | 95.64$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 18c | 94.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 3,939 | 23.2%913 W · 3,026 L | +125.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 65c | 88.29$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 921 | 45.6%420 W · 501 L | -29.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 75c | 85$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.38 | 2,043 | 61.7%1,261 W · 782 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 67c | 80.36$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.72 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed No | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 214 | 23.8%51 W · 163 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 25c | 78.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.79 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 78$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 34c | 71.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07f5…d680backed Yes | 49c | 69.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 27 | 81.5%22 W · 5 L | +6.1wins | +0.23per pick | 59cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 37c | 66.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.96 | 102 | 42.2%43 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 26c | 61.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.33 | 166 | 20.5%34 W · 132 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…9642backed Yes | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b1…b468backed No | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 77c | 56$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.28 | 1,421 | 31.1%442 W · 979 L | -93.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…509abacked Yes | 52c | 55.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 25c | 55.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 202 | 34.7%70 W · 132 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6906…f45ebacked Yes | 70c | 55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 71c | 53.16$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1b…2fffbacked Yes | 44c | 52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57f0…f45bbacked No | 77c | 51.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1703…1f9bbacked Yes | 34c | 51.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.12 | 97 | 12.4%12 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +61%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 79c | 50.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.34 | 291 | 48.8%142 W · 149 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ed…aea6backed Yes | 30c | 50.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 20c | 50.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72ed…203abacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 3,835 | 61.1%2,345 W · 1,490 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 164 | 36%59 W · 105 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…e80cbacked Yes | 75c | 47.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 102 | 65.7%67 W · 35 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 39c | 46.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 210 | 31%65 W · 145 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 46.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 3,126 | 61.8%1,931 W · 1,195 L | -30.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 24c | 45.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…c5bbbacked Yes | 50c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c25…3703backed Yes | 79c | 44.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87bf…d1dcbacked Yes | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed No | 77c | 44.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.