MLB · resolved market
Guardians vs. Twins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c2b761237cc1b2d4917141d1246c8c7dcbf58de2a15c8b978da6a9450c91f53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Guardiansof Guardians, Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $686,236
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $700,618
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $686,236 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 155 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf29b…dd4cbacked Twins | 50c | 510,224$254,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254,211.96 | 380 | 43.4%165 W · 215 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Guardians | 52c | 78,887$41,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,691.2 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…fa7bbacked Guardians | 51c | 78,286$40,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,286.22 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Guardians | 50c | 70,971$35,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,485.48 | 550 | 53.6%295 W · 255 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Guardians | 50c | 60,000$30,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,000 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9d…02c7backed Guardians | 50c | 46,502$23,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,250.91 | 359 | 52.4%188 W · 171 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…141dbacked Guardians | 50c | 40,600$20,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,300 | 117 | 59%69 W · 48 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Guardians | 51c | 35,525$18,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,407.02 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Twins | 49c | 35,000$17,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,150 | 602 | 49.5%298 W · 304 L | +10.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Twins | 49c | 25,000$12,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,250 | 564 | 51.1%288 W · 276 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Guardians | 50c | 23,269$11,635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,634.5 | 254 | 53.5%136 W · 118 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Guardians | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,000 | 73 | 63%46 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Guardians | 53c | 15,901$8,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,395 | 1,381 | 48.1%664 W · 717 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce8…4527backed Guardians | 51c | 15,527$7,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,608.23 | 444 | 56.5%251 W · 193 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3745…cf3bbacked Guardians | 51c | 15,000$7,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,350 | 380 | 47.6%181 W · 199 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Guardians | 50c | 13,333$6,667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,666.5 | 302 | 55.6%168 W · 134 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe895…c3dabacked Guardians | 75c | 11,479$8,609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,869.75 | 452 | 48.2%218 W · 234 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Guardians | 50c | 11,111$5,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,555.5 | 84 | 64.3%54 W · 30 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc25…1f7fbacked Twins | 48c | 8,003$3,841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,841.42 | 439 | 49.4%217 W · 222 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb091…2017backed Guardians | 51c | 5,498$2,804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,693.91 | 312 | 54.5%170 W · 142 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Twins | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,599.99 | 342 | 45%154 W · 188 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Twins | 40c | 4,996$1,982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,981.71 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Twins | 37c | 4,950$1,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,849.8 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Guardians | 50c | 4,444$2,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,222 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Guardians | 48c | 4,127$1,981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,146.04 | 234 | 55.6%130 W · 104 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b5…7543backed Twins | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,039.99 | 717 | 51%366 W · 351 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Guardians | 51c | 3,950$2,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,935.5 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x439b…2c9abacked Twins | 50c | 3,247$1,637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,636.93 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | -12.0wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…59d0backed Guardians | 51c | 2,935$1,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,438.28 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x016e…c700backed Guardians | 51c | 2,614$1,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,280.73 | 241 | 54.4%131 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Guardians | 60c | 2,283$1,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.95 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Guardians | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed Twins | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 221 | 42.1%93 W · 128 L | -16.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa468…816ebacked Guardians | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Guardians | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,019.98 | 301 | 51.5%155 W · 146 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…fbb3backed Twins | 31c | 1,855$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.05 | 338 | 45.9%155 W · 183 L | -15.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Guardians | 50c | 1,700$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850 | 159 | 42.1%67 W · 92 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Guardians | 49c | 1,656$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.78 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Twins | 49c | 1,635$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.15 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd666…a3fbbacked Guardians | 66c | 1,515$997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.22 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Twins | 29c | 1,156$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.66 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5482…b6eebacked Twins | 1c | 1,090$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 876 | 2.9%25 W · 851 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Guardians | 78c | 1,053$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.55 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…70adbacked Guardians | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc913…e51cbacked Guardians | 51c | 990.43$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.31 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Twins | 51c | 980$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.8 | 1,293 | 46.6%603 W · 690 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Guardians | 49c | 941.07$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.94 | 1,097 | 50.1%550 W · 547 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6692…1125backed Guardians | 72c | 925.59$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.65 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | -14.0wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -22%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed Twins | 30c | 864.77$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.98 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Twins | 37c | 822.98$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.57 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Twins | 50c | 805.44$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.72 | 307 | 40.4%124 W · 183 L | -11.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Twins | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…42c9backed Twins | 49c | 795.1$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.6 | 401 | 52.4%210 W · 191 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ad…9d38backed Twins | 51c | 784.31$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 170 | 45.3%77 W · 93 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…f6fabacked Guardians | 64c | 784.25$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.97 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a88…fd7fbacked Guardians | 48c | 730.52$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.01 | 125 | 58.4%73 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…0a4cbacked Twins | 49c | 700$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343 | 130 | 52.3%68 W · 62 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked Twins | 49c | 700$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c5…9a0ebacked Twins | 32c | 640.28$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.84 | 708 | 41.4%293 W · 415 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bd…2182backed Twins | 15c | 617$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.7 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -42%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Twins | 49c | 600$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Guardians | 80c | 551.63$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.89 | 1,456 | 42.7%622 W · 834 L | -39.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Twins | 52c | 549.99$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.47 | 1,289 | 47.2%609 W · 680 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Guardians | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Guardians | 49c | 487.64$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.28 | 764 | 56%428 W · 336 L | +32.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x519d…37a1backed Twins | 3c | 460.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 585 | 2.1%12 W · 573 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Twins | 24c | 433.82$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.52 | 549 | 41%225 W · 324 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Guardians | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 260 | 55%143 W · 117 L | +21.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Twins | 49c | 410$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.9 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Guardians | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 630 | 52.7%332 W · 298 L | +13.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed1f…afd7backed Guardians | 51c | 335.37$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.33 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Twins | 49c | 333$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.17 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Twins | 24c | 328.2$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 961 | 33.9%326 W · 635 L | -38.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Twins | 51c | 310$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.8 | 255 | 48.6%124 W · 131 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe797…2b36backed Guardians | 77c | 300$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.95 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Guardians | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 76 | 43.4%33 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Twins | 52c | 299.98$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.99 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Twins | 49c | 294$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.06 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…38ecbacked Guardians | 51c | 276.47$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.47 | 132 | 49.2%65 W · 67 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Guardians | 51c | 275$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.75 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…3221backed Twins | 35c | 254$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.64 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | +15.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Twins | 29c | 252.47$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.39 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Guardians | 49c | 249.99$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.49 | 1,483 | 50.2%745 W · 738 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Twins | 53c | 246.29$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.53 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Guardians | 51c | 245.1$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.1 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Twins | 50c | 220$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1,051 | 50.4%530 W · 521 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6777…2612backed Guardians | 57c | 210.53$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.53 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08d1…7ddabacked Guardians | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -8.0wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xde2c…587bbacked Guardians | 72c | 207.32$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.05 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4472…a648backed Twins | 51c | 205.88$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 999 | 51%509 W · 490 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Guardians | 49c | 205.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.33 | 613 | 46.3%284 W · 329 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe12a…1ff7backed Guardians | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -19%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x351b…4d06backed Guardians | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x284e…c695backed Guardians | 51c | 197.46$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.75 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x251e…d015backed Twins | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -6.8wins | -0.25per pick | 51cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…95a1backed Twins | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 401 | 44.1%177 W · 224 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Twins | 51c | 195.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Guardians | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 959 | 30%288 W · 671 L | -24.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Twins | 49c | 180.25$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.32 | 731 | 49.4%361 W · 370 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3372…1914backed Guardians | 56c | 180.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.17 | 1,388 | 55.1%765 W · 623 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Guardians vs. Twinsthis page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.