Serie A · resolved market
Spread: SSC Napoli (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c4097de8092d02a2f86293abeaab9829cdcc6d64bd22a7f03b1a2066f0c9bc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Udinese Calcioof SSC Napoli, Udinese Calcio
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,050
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,208
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,050 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Udinese Calcio | 62c | 2,503$1,563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.91 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Udinese Calcio | 60c | 1,614$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.82 | 342 | 39.2%134 W · 208 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked SSC Napoli | 39c | 1,393$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.27 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked SSC Napoli | 31c | 1,379$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.81 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Udinese Calcio | 62c | 1,200$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456 | 249 | 39.4%98 W · 151 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked SSC Napoli | 38c | 977.8$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.57 | 189 | 51.3%97 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee19…555ebacked Udinese Calcio | 62c | 756.09$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.07 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed SSC Napoli | 40c | 500.93$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.57 | 159 | 46.5%74 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47fb…0c7bbacked Udinese Calcio | 62c | 456.38$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.42 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed SSC Napoli | 49c | 299.26$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.94 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +88.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed SSC Napoli | 31c | 251.61$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 319 | 58.3%186 W · 133 L | +26.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Udinese Calcio | 61c | 240.25$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.52 | 210 | 54.3%114 W · 96 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed SSC Napoli | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 120 | 35.8%43 W · 77 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…bc0dbacked SSC Napoli | 38c | 184.21$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked SSC Napoli | 38c | 108$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed SSC Napoli | 35c | 105.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 225 | 45.3%102 W · 123 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8942…1e76backed SSC Napoli | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Udinese Calcio | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.67 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Udinese Calcio | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc21d…727ebacked SSC Napoli | 50c | 94$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed SSC Napoli | 39c | 79.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Udinese Calcio | 65c | 75.96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 411 | 44.3%182 W · 229 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8286…d077backed SSC Napoli | 51c | 73.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…caf2backed SSC Napoli | 47c | 64.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked SSC Napoli | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +10.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed SSC Napoli | 44c | 47.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked SSC Napoli | 38c | 45.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe569…e759backed SSC Napoli | 45c | 44.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Udinese Calcio | 64c | 42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61a1…1307backed SSC Napoli | 53c | 36.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…8528backed SSC Napoli | 55c | 36.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x157a…e4a3backed Udinese Calcio | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd22b…d891backed Udinese Calcio | 62c | 31.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Udinese Calcio | 66c | 29.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed SSC Napoli | 38c | 29.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fc…ed09backed SSC Napoli | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d49…fea5backed SSC Napoli | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Udinese Calcio | 61c | 19.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: SSC Napoli (-1.5)this page
- SSC Napoli vs. Udinese Calcio: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SSC Napoli vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 0.5Over won
- SSC Napoli vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 1.5Under won
- SSC Napoli vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 2.5Under won
- SSC Napoli vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 3.5Under won
- SSC Napoli vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 4.5Under won
- SSC Napoli vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: SSC Napoli (-2.5)Udinese Calcio won
- Spread: Udinese Calcio (-2.5)SSC Napoli won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.