Serie A · resolved market
SSC Napoli vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3ccd2d35d5b163ec3e65d4096c9b5ac28acc441d1f9be829d3d800e5c16a4f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,285
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,527
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,285 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe85d…ad4bbacked Over | 30c | 1,562$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 70c | 1,277$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.91 | 342 | 39.2%134 W · 208 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 29c | 689.66$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 138 | 26.1%36 W · 102 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 79c | 629.18$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.64 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 19c | 618.98$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.05 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…79bdbacked Under | 71c | 204.23$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.23 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 71c | 140$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 364 | 56.3%205 W · 159 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe2…6829backed Under | 64c | 123$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.51 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 39c | 108.08$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 298 | 62.4%186 W · 112 L | +34.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 27c | 108.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 319 | 58.3%186 W · 133 L | +26.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 30c | 95.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 74c | 95$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 411 | 44.3%182 W · 229 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad5…b130backed Over | 31c | 90.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa52…eababacked Over | 33c | 78.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 67c | 78.79$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 71c | 63.62$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 328 | 54.3%178 W · 150 L | +14.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…5856backed Over | 39c | 53.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde8e…3289backed Over | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 71c | 44.92$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 210 | 54.3%114 W · 96 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2a…83d3backed Over | 27c | 44.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea47…d64bbacked Under | 72c | 43.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 62c | 37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 397 | 40.6%161 W · 236 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…be0abacked Over | 38c | 34.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d70…d0a6backed Under | 63c | 31.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Under | 66c | 15.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SSC Napoli vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 3.5this page
- SSC Napoli vs. Udinese Calcio: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SSC Napoli vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 0.5Over won
- SSC Napoli vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 1.5Under won
- SSC Napoli vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 2.5Under won
- SSC Napoli vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 4.5Under won
- SSC Napoli vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: SSC Napoli (-1.5)Udinese Calcio won
- Spread: SSC Napoli (-2.5)Udinese Calcio won
- Spread: Udinese Calcio (-2.5)SSC Napoli won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.