NHL · resolved market
Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c6365403b153e1257d3d207c96e1c4d35c57c63fec430b8c253b9cf8085cd5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,412
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,961
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,412 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa974…ef79backed Under | 21c | 4,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 79c | 2,324$1,834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.61 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9762…73fbbacked Over | 79c | 1,266$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.82 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb58d…fadfbacked Under | 24c | 815.42$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Under | 19c | 798.79$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.6 | 93 | 21.5%20 W · 73 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 80c | 611.97$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.61 | 287 | 49.8%143 W · 144 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Under | 18c | 372.86$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.25 | 133 | 36.1%48 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07aa…deb1backed Over | 78c | 353.44$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.76 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 77c | 346.97$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 172 | 48.3%83 W · 89 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 20c | 345.87$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.17 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2e…c5d2backed Over | 79c | 202$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 75 | 80%60 W · 15 L | +10.0wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 79c | 189.87$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…7980backed Over | 79c | 154$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Under | 22c | 127.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 78c | 110.71$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9abb…3f96backed Over | 79c | 90.08$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x359e…9376backed Under | 23c | 56.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2003…af6fbacked Over | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 77c | 39.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6090…06e0backed Over | 78c | 39.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 77c | 28.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 332 | 51.5%171 W · 161 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Over | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5this page
- Sabres vs. CanadiensSabres won
- Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5Under won
- Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5Under won
- Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Sabres won
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)Canadiens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.