NHL · resolved market
Spread: Sabres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9018f9747582eef356ee7f07de086934963da9585fe55f6800b5038071ed9596
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Canadiensof Sabres, Canadiens
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,480
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,022
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,480 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Sabres | 44c | 5,300$2,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,335.91 | 158 | 39.9%63 W · 95 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…99dbbacked Canadiens | 54c | 1,264$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.75 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Canadiens | 57c | 1,007$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.2 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Canadiens | 54c | 999.98$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.99 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf63a…90e6backed Sabres | 47c | 980.85$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Canadiens | 54c | 796$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.16 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29b7…4108backed Canadiens | 58c | 650$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b84…6accbacked Canadiens | 58c | 517.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.24 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Canadiens | 56c | 450$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Canadiens | 54c | 422.59$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.39 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Canadiens | 26c | 130$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.2 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Sabres | 15c | 106.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Canadiens | 58c | 99.98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Sabres | 36c | 74.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Sabres | 42c | 41.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Canadiens | 54c | 36.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -8.4wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe93c…76ebbacked Canadiens | 57c | 34.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Canadiens | 56c | 34.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…def7backed Sabres | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Sabres | 43c | 29.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 148 | 55.4%82 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Canadiens | 57c | 29.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Canadiens | 74c | 29.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +8.9wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Sabres | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 172 | 48.3%83 W · 89 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa17e…cfcdbacked Canadiens | 60c | 20.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Canadiens | 63c | 19.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)this page
- Sabres vs. CanadiensSabres won
- Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5Over won
- Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5Under won
- Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5Under won
- Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Sabres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.