TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on April 19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$60,475
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$71,690

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,475 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 226 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc393…66f9backed No38c1,724$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.412932.6%42 W · 87 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-19.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf229…d5f7backed Yes50c1,404$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$698.83928.2%11 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x713b…c916backed Yes52c1,253$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.51931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-40.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4789…b286backed Yes49c1,210$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.357524%18 W · 57 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-32.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9047…2959backed No61c1,030$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.414257.1%24 W · 18 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+24.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3cc0…1912backed No8c837.74$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.0216116.1%26 W · 135 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-34.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed No8c797.36$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.7996313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef6a…18e8backed No52c779.46$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.817360.3%44 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ba2…eb93backed Yes62c750.35$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.672045%9 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes46c728.11$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.792,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15b1…a8e8backed No51c699.99$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35716335%57 W · 106 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No50c699.56$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.0312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Yes64c674.64$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.0433018.8%62 W · 268 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-32.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes41c535$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.8256627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2a5…51b4backed Yes49c499.09$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.591040%4 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-24.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No41c487.8$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No23c482.83$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.117,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes45c356.12$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.281,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc12f…5c57backed No54c355.76$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.4119338.9%75 W · 118 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a3a…0d98backed No59c342.51$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.23333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick65cpaid-47.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x51a5…a647backed No56c317.98$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.223221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x24d7…3ed2backed Yes44c312.07$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.91475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+25.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes43c307.76$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.9830428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9fbf…f003backed No77c307.1$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.9830652.6%161 W · 145 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No51c300.97$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.1819060.5%115 W · 75 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes58c300.92$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.415,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9345…b1b1backed Yes33c287.95$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.72045%9 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes42c287.74$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.891,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No54c273.58$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.761,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3735…5a5bbacked No52c272.24$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.5715136.4%55 W · 96 L-11.3wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3646…ba5abacked Yes45c265.16$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.9640741.3%168 W · 239 L+32.5wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes43c252.25$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.6139541.3%163 W · 232 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No48c240.95$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.044,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No45c223.1$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.2912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes42c215.71$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.5923035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed No35c214.99$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.4760523.3%141 W · 464 L-21.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7cf7…36d6backed Yes47c207.96$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.352045%9 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8de…614dbacked Yes39c203.28$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.884325.6%11 W · 32 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes68c200$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes11c200$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1781,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf132…c706backed Yes32c193.9$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.2830813.6%42 W · 266 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3deb…a08bbacked Yes51c177.44$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No66c175.45$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.0867158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x343f…bb4dbacked Yes44c169.19$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.9613533.3%45 W · 90 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd802…d766backed No76c167.39$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.9430664.1%196 W · 110 L-0.4wins0.00per pick64cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfed5…ee90backed Yes48c161.46$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.711844.4%8 W · 10 L+2.9wins+0.16per pick28cpaid+39.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe5f6…91d5backed Yes47c159$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.011650%8 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes40c156.96$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.687,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85e8…9301backed Yes48c150.05$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.9411362.8%71 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes46c150$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.2516046.3%74 W · 86 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x45a7…5c41backed Yes10c150$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1355313.2%7 W · 46 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-17.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7598…b1c2backed Yes44c148.93$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.71560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3334…69b0backed Yes52c148.13$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.7646444.4%206 W · 258 L-18.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba96…95a7backed Yes66c145.77$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.1424029.2%70 W · 170 L-15.8wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-20.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe3a6…9e63backed No37c141.26$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8333232.8%109 W · 223 L+18.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes48c138.33$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.4756543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x91a3…c648backed No49c132.83$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc967…91d5backed Yes54c131.1$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.387913.9%11 W · 68 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No39c128.39$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4489951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No48c125.92$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes58c124.39$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.3321429.4%63 W · 151 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No49c123.58$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.22,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed No59c123.3$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.7532444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd496…00ecbacked No58c122.92$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.133627.8%10 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No48c116$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.931,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24da…4c6dbacked No56c114.05$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.893070%21 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6eb3…d405backed No42c111.81$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1110247.1%48 W · 54 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27a2…4240backed Yes43c110.86$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.741723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-38.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No45c109$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.382,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93b3…dc40backed No56c106.5$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.144245.2%19 W · 23 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x985a…7b76backed Yes40c105.43$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.7850%4 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xabcc…32f6backed Yes44c104.88$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.731060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+20%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c6a…1801backed Yes47c102.52$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.33450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e43…2e9cbacked No57c101.78$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.812458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9733…be31backed No51c101.49$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.767250%36 W · 36 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes11c100$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8934918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8887…681bbacked Yes25c100$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7513424.6%33 W · 101 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61f7…f8debacked Yes25c100$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.528742.5%122 W · 165 L+24.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+24.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6639…7202backed Yes48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.7912735.4%45 W · 82 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.528737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5fea…4417backed No62c99.62$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.08520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-73.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes46c98.38$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.133225%8 W · 24 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-44.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4bbd…b40ebacked Yes56c97.56$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.125635.7%20 W · 36 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65df…6144backed Yes52c96.19$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.176137.7%23 W · 38 L-8.4wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-20.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x36f6…ae14backed No62c96.17$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3211663.8%74 W · 42 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+8.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes41c94.67$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.1824238%92 W · 150 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x60cc…c9a7backed Yes51c93.38$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.08250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b9…5447backed Yes50c92.79$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.371450%7 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+263.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fec…9d17backed Yes54c91.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.075152.9%27 W · 24 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xee4f…89f5backed Yes44c91.42$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.832138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-16.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5e4…e43bbacked Yes47c90.6$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.691546.7%7 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4701…ca83backed No53c90.51$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9716456.7%93 W · 71 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-9.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ac4…57bfbacked Yes53c89.63$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.321643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-28.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No56c89.44$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0927167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdeb5…e19cbacked No62c87.84$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6710617.9%19 W · 87 L-10.8wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-64.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes32c87.7$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.493034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x404d…1ba7backed Yes38c87.69$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.79742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3887…9496backed No57c86.95$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5624370%170 W · 73 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick69cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83dd…a49abacked Yes56c86.49$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.25988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.25per pick64cpaid+41%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdca4…1c68backed Yes38c86.4$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.51729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+21.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.