Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa01d36860991b9d43b5957a501adcdc61c85a4bd3c7e8847e7c83837f412a187
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,026
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,026 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa79a…4883backed Yes | 11c | 1,959$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.57 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 5c | 906.61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 18c | 779.98$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.8 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Yes | 5c | 731.15$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad6…669ebacked Yes | 11c | 696.13$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.81 | 66 | 10.6%7 W · 59 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 10c | 647.15$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.62 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 18c | 529.47$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.7 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 17c | 496.66$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.62 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 421.92$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.36 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 8c | 350$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51a5…a647backed Yes | 25c | 346.65$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.47 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 21c | 342.31$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.55 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fec…9d17backed Yes | 29c | 317.95$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.92 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 21c | 302.55$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba2…eb93backed Yes | 27c | 263.62$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.18 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 24c | 257.19$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.58 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 27c | 248.56$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.55 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 24c | 248.12$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.6 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 20c | 244.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 20c | 170.68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 29c | 144.84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…3554backed Yes | 26c | 141.76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 20c | 139.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 80c | 125.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9a…18f9backed Yes | 17c | 122.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed No | 75c | 121.59$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 20c | 121.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x704d…aceebacked Yes | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 22c | 112.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 105.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 23c | 97.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbd…b40ebacked Yes | 20c | 95.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 90.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…890cbacked Yes | 22c | 90.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 25c | 86.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x404d…1ba7backed Yes | 27c | 86.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd384…130ebacked Yes | 17c | 86.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 85.2$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 24c | 77.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 76.76$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49d6…8b53backed No | 79c | 74.4$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 74c | 70.88$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…bf47backed No | 75c | 65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 16c | 64.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 59.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 59.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 18c | 58.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d48…ba3cbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…453fbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ede…86febacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed Yes | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…ee5dbacked Yes | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked No | 79c | 48.95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 71c | 48.47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 22c | 46.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 45.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed No | 76c | 44.64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…5441backed No | 80c | 43.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 77c | 40.51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…1ad7backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 64 | 79.7%51 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58d5…d270backed No | 80c | 30.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 70c | 30.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 28.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed No | 80c | 24.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 117 | 70.9%83 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ee…23a6backed No | 80c | 21.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb345…23d5backed No | 80c | 19.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 69c | 18.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5e…5441backed No | 74c | 14.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or below on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on April 19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.