Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c8c9ec14ffd206fafacb765f519415c78f00e956ba13bbc268a7e3c5a02dac8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,107
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,755
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,107 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 48c | 578.44$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.08 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 27c | 483.71$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.4 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 64c | 479.87$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.17 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 56c | 424.87$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.23 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 215.18$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.67 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 52c | 195.24$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.34 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 33c | 190.86$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.98 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 72c | 164.34$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.89 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 52c | 154.85$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.12 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 17c | 147.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.37 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 145.52$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 136.04$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.87 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 38c | 123.31$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 48c | 122.08$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.48 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 41c | 120.57$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.2 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 49c | 120$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.86 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 52c | 118.23$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.48 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 52c | 107$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.51 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 48c | 105$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.85 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 70c | 96$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 54c | 90.44$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 52c | 89.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.39 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 26c | 89.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 24c | 87.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.63 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 47c | 86.51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.53 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 86.18$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.18 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 48c | 75.9$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.72 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 46c | 71.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39be…aac9backed Yes | 43c | 69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 60c | 64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa957…7638backed Yes | 77c | 61.26$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 17c | 61.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 17c | 59.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.45 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 39c | 56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 39c | 53.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 41c | 46.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 52c | 46.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 33c | 45.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 50c | 45.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 53c | 45.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 58c | 42.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 48c | 41.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 39.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 29c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 59c | 38.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 46c | 37.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 77c | 34.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 60c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 59c | 31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 73c | 29.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 58c | 28.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…4dfcbacked Yes | 47c | 28.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 46c | 26.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 40c | 25.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a60…7b81backed Yes | 47c | 25.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 50c | 24.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 73c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77d1…6d42backed Yes | 47c | 23.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca84…6f8dbacked No | 57c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 21.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 55c | 21.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a53…1ee8backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 55c | 19.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 66c | 19.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671b…821cbacked No | 68c | 16.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.