Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ca3e65f08bd2422cae0e7ce0248149a62e2cae82396981f5e094c10c7c1926c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,209
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,298
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,209 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 22c | 829.52$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.1 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 26c | 584$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.73 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 78c | 443.51$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.35 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 358.25$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.34 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 18c | 273$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.34 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 14c | 205.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 14c | 190$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 32c | 188$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.65 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 26c | 170.15$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 149.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 146.31$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.93 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4048…5c72backed No | 71c | 140.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 20c | 139.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 33c | 129.33$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 119.6$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 30c | 114.79$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 15c | 114.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 21c | 109.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 20c | 104.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed No | 78c | 104.48$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 34c | 103.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 76c | 94.22$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 79.03$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…14ccbacked Yes | 24c | 76.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed Yes | 32c | 75.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 75.2$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 72c | 71$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 20c | 67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 66.13$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 66$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 20c | 63.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc29…66b4backed Yes | 19c | 63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 29c | 59.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84c2…c908backed Yes | 25c | 56.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 52.14$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x808c…0aa2backed Yes | 29c | 51.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 25c | 51.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2aa…f58dbacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 29c | 46.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 74c | 44.72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 77c | 42.74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76d3…f6d9backed No | 74c | 41.67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 65c | 41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 27c | 38.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 35.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 65c | 34.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 68c | 34.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 80c | 33.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 76c | 25.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 78c | 23.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 70c | 17.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…e1f8backed No | 70c | 17.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x663a…75f8backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 63°F or below on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 82°F or higher on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.