Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f0ff052edeef6ac6917b807364c9556392c256f22b3166ad467b743712c46e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,735
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,391
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,735 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 42c | 3,243$1,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,885.8 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 16c | 1,646$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.67 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 43c | 993.5$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.79 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 48c | 485.71$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.94 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes | 45c | 444.13$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.13 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 58c | 438.79$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.11 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 424.49$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.94 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 54c | 341.53$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.13 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 58c | 338.29$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.4 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 59c | 274$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 56c | 271.42$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 58c | 248.1$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.9 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 43c | 238.42$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.15 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 57c | 235.46$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.68 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 44c | 212$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.9 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 55c | 208.38$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.46 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 58c | 192.03$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.93 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 62c | 184.99$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.55 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked No | 9c | 163.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 163.83$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.29 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 31c | 163.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 43c | 159.69$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.39 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 147.9$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.31 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 57c | 137$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.71 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 56c | 134.25$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.79 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 35c | 133.85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.41 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 44c | 132.73$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.29 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 46c | 120.03$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.57 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 56c | 105$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 56c | 104.87$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.95 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed No | 58c | 103.08$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.79 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 43c | 100.56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.45 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.46 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…9e01backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 57c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 47c | 96.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 49c | 95.59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 42c | 93.13$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.19 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 65c | 89.71$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.28 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 32c | 85.34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.34 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb2…d640backed Yes | 47c | 84.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 82.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 56c | 81$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 47c | 79.19$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.02 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 57c | 78.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed Yes | 42c | 77.18$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.41 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked No | 59c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 57c | 65.38$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 46c | 61.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 61c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 56.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 47c | 55.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 54c | 55.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc2…e1d3backed Yes | 47c | 54.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 59c | 53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed No | 55c | 51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…2dcabacked No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7faa…c757backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c54…02e9backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…4331backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcae…1ea8backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 58c | 48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…68d3backed No | 51c | 46.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 44.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc65e…0b4ebacked No | 63c | 44.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +26%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 43.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 42c | 42.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 43c | 42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 50c | 41.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 58c | 40.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…8fd4backed No | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…372bbacked Yes | 41c | 39.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x808c…0aa2backed No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 57c | 35.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 55c | 34.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b19…bae5backed No | 63c | 33.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37df…f8b9backed Yes | 36c | 33.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed No | 60c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…e1f8backed No | 60c | 32.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 46c | 30.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…e002backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed No | 55c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 59c | 28.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead3…b125backed No | 67c | 27.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 63°F or below on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 82°F or higher on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.