La Liga · resolved market
Real Betis Balompié vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cb8d60136289c843160c22ecc5fe829ec64d87a4bf57227ec546ebe37c72b44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,460
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,460 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 31c | 18,221$5,687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,687.39 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…d24dbacked Under | 66c | 17,577$11,601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,976.32 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5f…4b52backed Under | 75c | 7,300$5,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,825 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Over | 31c | 2,999$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.83 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Under | 66c | 1,733$1,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.26 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Over | 34c | 1,729$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 34c | 1,500$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.99 | 387 | 29.5%114 W · 273 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 34c | 1,119$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.38 | 2,343 | 48.5%1,137 W · 1,206 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 234 | 52.6%123 W · 111 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c9…41b5backed Under | 67c | 1,000$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Over | 31c | 999.59$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.75 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | -11.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 10c | 649.15$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.8 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Over | 29c | 599.46$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.84 | 209 | 45%94 W · 115 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 35c | 367.14$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.33 | 216 | 26.9%58 W · 158 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Over | 34c | 308.44$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.87 | 204 | 52.5%107 W · 97 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…f681backed Over | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 11c | 276.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2303…b9a7backed Over | 35c | 221.11$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.39 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 53 | 66%35 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 68c | 145$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 691 | 42.5%294 W · 397 L | -21.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc6…314abacked Under | 67c | 129.52$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.74 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked Over | 20c | 123.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…379dbacked Over | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc270…1379backed Over | 37c | 70.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed Under | 72c | 64.79$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0f…bbfebacked Under | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Under | 66c | 51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…8045backed Over | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bb…d0d6backed Under | 72c | 36.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 69c | 28.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 572 | 52.1%298 W · 274 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 63c | 27.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 317 | 45.7%145 W · 172 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x217f…c864backed Under | 75c | 21.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Betis Balompié vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 3.5this page
- Real Betis Balompié vs. Villarreal CF: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Real Betis Balompié vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Betis Balompié vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5Under won
- Real Betis Balompié vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.