NFL · resolved market
Bengals vs. Dolphins: O/U 49.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cdf711f9d7cbe98b4eb9d0edb68a6e2a01fcb96750392c60dbdfcaf36afb063
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,631
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,630
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,631 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Over | 43c | 400$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 57c | 300$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…0923backed Under | 55c | 129$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.95 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 56c | 110.15$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.38 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1594backed Under | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Under | 54c | 64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 56.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 51c | 56.31$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a9…f72ebacked Over | 45c | 37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77ed…53f7backed Over | 46c | 37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2579…d6cbbacked Over | 45c | 37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd0…4938backed Under | 55c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…1ed1backed Over | 45c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc856…0aa5backed Over | 46c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x454a…4039backed Under | 54c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bengals vs. Dolphins: O/U 49.5this page
- Bengals vs. DolphinsBengals won
- Bengals vs. Dolphins: 1H MoneylineBengals won
- Bengals vs. Dolphins: 1H O/U 23.5Over won
- Bengals vs. Dolphins: O/U 47.5Over won
- Bengals vs. Dolphins: O/U 48.5Over won
- Bengals vs. Dolphins: O/U 50.5Over won
- Spread: Bengals (-2.5)Bengals won
- Spread: Bengals (-3.5)Bengals won
- Spread: Bengals (-4.5)Bengals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.