NFL · resolved market
Bengals vs. Dolphins: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60d40f5c5afbae3e0014b1d07717a4be7306abdde8de2645712272742bdbc67d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bengalsof Bengals, Dolphins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,254
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,275
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,254 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Dolphins | 3c | 1,099$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | +13.9wins | +0.13per pick | 10cpaid | +428.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Bengals | 61c | 600$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Dolphins | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -11.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Dolphins | 41c | 125$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.25 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Dolphins | 41c | 109$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.69 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Dolphins | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf9…1abfbacked Dolphins | 39c | 73.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Dolphins | 23c | 61.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Dolphins | 34c | 39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9b…0bc0backed Bengals | 59c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.30per pick | 53cpaid | +57%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x73c5…4997backed Bengals | 59c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.34per pick | 55cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fef…a3d3backed Bengals | 59c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Dolphins | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Bengals | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22e5…81acbacked Bengals | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x521c…64d2backed Bengals | 59c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…9f5abacked Bengals | 59c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Bengals | 66c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcf…4028backed Bengals | 61c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x888b…8f3fbacked Bengals | 61c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Bengals | 66c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bengals vs. Dolphins: 1H Moneylinethis page
- Bengals vs. DolphinsBengals won
- Bengals vs. Dolphins: 1H O/U 23.5Over won
- Bengals vs. Dolphins: O/U 47.5Over won
- Bengals vs. Dolphins: O/U 48.5Over won
- Bengals vs. Dolphins: O/U 49.5Over won
- Bengals vs. Dolphins: O/U 50.5Over won
- Spread: Bengals (-2.5)Bengals won
- Spread: Bengals (-3.5)Bengals won
- Spread: Bengals (-4.5)Bengals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.