TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Spread: Bengals (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Bengalsof Bengals, Dolphins
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$33,369
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$33,778

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,369 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8c20…7d4fbacked Dolphins40c18,500$7,400 inLost-$7,4001346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a4…1a5dbacked Bengals60c16,000$9,600 inWon+$6,4001457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+15%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Dolphins40c7,936$3,159 inLost-$3,158.7286547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Dolphins42c5,000$2,100 inLost-$2,10012944.2%57 W · 72 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bengals58c4,250$2,465 inWon+$1,7851,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Bengals60c4,096$2,470 inWon+$1,626.0853348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Bengals60c2,500$1,500 inWon+$1,00014641.8%61 W · 85 L-10.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-12.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9315…a744backed Bengals60c2,500$1,500 inWon+$1,0001560%9 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Bengals60c937$562 inWon+$374.814366.4%95 W · 48 L+13.0wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+16.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc9c8…44fbbacked Dolphins40c575.17$230 inLost-$230.0714837.2%55 W · 93 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Bengals60c557$335 inWon+$222.3747348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Bengals58c500$290 inWon+$21065048.3%314 W · 336 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53b0…4daabacked Bengals61c327.87$200 inWon+$127.875349.1%26 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6941…efd5backed Bengals60c250$150 inWon+$10013253%70 W · 62 L-0.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc4d…f0b8backed Bengals51c157.31$80 inWon+$77.0813448.5%65 W · 69 L-9.4wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-12.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Dolphins49c100$49 inLost-$4915144.4%67 W · 84 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x09d2…cc27backed Dolphins12c100$12 inLost-$125044%22 W · 28 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Dolphins49c96.93$47 inLost-$47.0134652.9%183 W · 163 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1216…7288backed Bengals60c81.83$49 inWon+$32.832231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Bengals52c48.21$25 inWon+$23.1417648.9%86 W · 90 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Bengals60c40.15$24 inWon+$16.2436341.9%152 W · 211 L-13.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bd2…2b28backed Dolphins40c39.99$16 inLost-$162441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0881…0fd1backed Bengals60c33.33$20 inWon+$13.332955.2%16 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Bengals60c30$18 inWon+$1234247.4%162 W · 180 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Dolphins41c27$11 inLost-$11.0777052.7%406 W · 364 L+24.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.