NFL · resolved market
Bengals vs. Dolphins: O/U 48.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdae0175a78c333892e9e99ec9a137415e263ea9102e5fae8089a9dfbc2c805da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,639
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,497
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,639 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 5,304$2,676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,675.8 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07c8…2696backed Over | 50c | 3,865$1,933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,932.7 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +7.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Over | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 285 | 56.5%161 W · 124 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 48c | 800$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 52c | 800$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed Over | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Under | 51c | 142$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.42 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Under | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 47c | 75.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d10…e17cbacked Over | 49c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…cc70backed Under | 52c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5f…b793backed Over | 49c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 51cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Under | 52c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x143d…5bc4backed Over | 49c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf71c…488bbacked Over | 48c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +4.8wins | +0.40per pick | 51cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd289…98b5backed Over | 49c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe1…e560backed Over | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 54cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x480a…429fbacked Over | 50c | 20.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 72 | 59.7%43 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bengals vs. Dolphins: O/U 48.5this page
- Bengals vs. DolphinsBengals won
- Bengals vs. Dolphins: 1H MoneylineBengals won
- Bengals vs. Dolphins: 1H O/U 23.5Over won
- Bengals vs. Dolphins: O/U 47.5Over won
- Bengals vs. Dolphins: O/U 49.5Over won
- Bengals vs. Dolphins: O/U 50.5Over won
- Spread: Bengals (-2.5)Bengals won
- Spread: Bengals (-3.5)Bengals won
- Spread: Bengals (-4.5)Bengals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.