NFL · resolved market
Spread: Bengals (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea982710f93cdd9afe9274184a429fa0e48b89bf153637036660e0d4f8e0aeba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bengalsof Bengals, Dolphins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,704
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $124,997
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,704 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Bengals | 50c | 31,103$15,552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,551.5 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a88…41ccbacked Dolphins | 50c | 31,021$15,571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,570.71 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff2…dbbdbacked Bengals | 50c | 22,938$11,469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,469 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +5.7wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Dolphins | 50c | 21,444$10,722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,721.94 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bengals | 49c | 16,268$8,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,248.4 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Dolphins | 50c | 15,000$7,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,500 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +134.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Dolphins | 51c | 5,732$2,923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,923.3 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Bengals | 50c | 2,562$1,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,281 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Dolphins | 50c | 2,419$1,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,209.5 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Bengals | 50c | 2,311$1,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,155.5 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…50aabacked Bengals | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Dolphins | 50c | 1,480$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.1 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Dolphins | 50c | 379.64$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.82 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5344…c194backed Bengals | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e4…24c2backed Bengals | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Bengals | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Dolphins | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9382…4ee3backed Dolphins | 51c | 49.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca7…6e6ebacked Dolphins | 51c | 43.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0dd…cea3backed Bengals | 50c | 38.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…4217backed Dolphins | 51c | 33.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bengals (-3.5)this page
- Bengals vs. DolphinsBengals won
- Bengals vs. Dolphins: 1H MoneylineBengals won
- Bengals vs. Dolphins: 1H O/U 23.5Over won
- Bengals vs. Dolphins: O/U 47.5Over won
- Bengals vs. Dolphins: O/U 48.5Over won
- Bengals vs. Dolphins: O/U 49.5Over won
- Bengals vs. Dolphins: O/U 50.5Over won
- Spread: Bengals (-2.5)Bengals won
- Spread: Bengals (-4.5)Bengals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.