Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d1110cece957353f733bda5662da4282a6fef15d453fe999c6db5c376c8d57f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,113
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,113 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f61…9cd1backed Yes | 31c | 1,136$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.53 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 34c | 641.11$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.53 | 286 | 32.2%92 W · 194 L | +13.6wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 43c | 461.33$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.31 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 65c | 450.21$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.49 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 61c | 440.37$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.23 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2edc…a207backed Yes | 42c | 392.65$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.69 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 269.36$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.44 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 51c | 234.41$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.48 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 44c | 228.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.7 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 43c | 219$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.52 | 763 | 22.9%175 W · 588 L | -34.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 16c | 218.21$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 31c | 198.77$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.66 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 67c | 188.2$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.58 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 71c | 155.18$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.65 | 352 | 83.8%295 W · 57 L | +39.0wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 148.59$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.33 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 21c | 130$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 405 | 39.3%159 W · 246 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 58c | 126.11$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.4 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 39c | 111$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.29 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 108.92$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 19c | 108$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 552 | 38.8%214 W · 338 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 101$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.29 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 989 | 52.3%517 W · 472 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 577 | 57.7%333 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc39d…adafbacked Yes | 52c | 85.02$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.21 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 58c | 82.27$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd1…d8f4backed No | 62c | 80.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.83 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 46c | 77.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 51c | 75.71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 59c | 70.19$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 57c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 66c | 56.75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4868…a1c1backed Yes | 46c | 55.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 54c | 52.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 560 | 67.1%376 W · 184 L | +26.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 251 | 58.6%147 W · 104 L | +14.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe608…89fabacked No | 66c | 49.62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 46c | 48.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 66c | 47.63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 63c | 43.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 36c | 41.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 64c | 40.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 48c | 38.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 1,335 | 50.9%680 W · 655 L | -35.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 38c | 38.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 54c | 37.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 65c | 37.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 49c | 36.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 575 | 59.7%343 W · 232 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 66c | 35.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 63c | 34.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 504 | 62.3%314 W · 190 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 65c | 34.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce8e…cd63backed Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0857…dc72backed Yes | 47c | 32.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa5…4f5abacked Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e18…b3ecbacked Yes | 48c | 31.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +7.0wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2993…99b7backed Yes | 48c | 31.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…08f6backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 64c | 29.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b8…e849backed No | 49c | 28.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x414a…253ebacked No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 71c | 24.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked No | 68c | 24.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 231 | 30.7%71 W · 160 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 50c | 24.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 67c | 22.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 58c | 22.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 47c | 21.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 65c | 20.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebb…9ed8backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 114 | 47.4%54 W · 60 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6711…4907backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on August 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on August 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on August 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.