Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x089155e64b0d25b9a713f3d2713a9e4f6450ccabef9b94d176c80721220f1cb5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,132
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,851
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,132 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2edc…a207backed Yes | 59c | 1,170$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.2 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 42c | 592.4$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.49 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 57c | 568.71$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.3 | 286 | 32.2%92 W · 194 L | +13.6wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 51c | 521.23$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.82 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 39c | 460.57$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.64 | 892 | 59.8%533 W · 359 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 449.1$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.34 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 47c | 350.97$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.47 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 39c | 330.11$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.51 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x373e…b868backed No | 5c | 320$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 10c | 299.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 51c | 211.14$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.98 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 48c | 208.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.53 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 34c | 153.52$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.95 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 70c | 145.61$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.92 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 70c | 145$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…2bdbbacked Yes | 71c | 141.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 53c | 128.97$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.14 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd1…d8f4backed No | 57c | 127.71$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.4 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes | 49c | 122.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.36 | 115 | 27.8%32 W · 83 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 38c | 119.81$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 527 | 43.6%230 W · 297 L | +31.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 38c | 111.4$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.33 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 29c | 111$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.81 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 108$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.25 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 62c | 101$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.29 | 763 | 22.9%175 W · 588 L | -34.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 923 | 55.9%516 W · 407 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 221 | 16.7%37 W · 184 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 34c | 91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 1,254 | 59.8%750 W · 504 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 41c | 90.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf3…2286backed Yes | 30c | 80.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.35 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 79c | 68.3$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 383 | 46.7%179 W · 204 L | +16.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 40c | 67.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 35c | 58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 45c | 57.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 4,032 | 35.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L | +42.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 52c | 57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 123 | 65.9%81 W · 42 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 63c | 52.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 37c | 50.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 560 | 67.1%376 W · 184 L | +26.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 56c | 50.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 1,244 | 61.7%767 W · 477 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 55c | 49.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 58c | 47.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 148 | 39.9%59 W · 89 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 42c | 46.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 46c | 46.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 33c | 45.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd069…9599backed Yes | 66c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +4.9wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 28c | 43.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 30c | 41.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.93 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 37c | 40.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 202 | 55.4%112 W · 90 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 405 | 39.3%159 W · 246 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 3,126 | 61.8%1,931 W · 1,195 L | -30.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd5…f702backed No | 37c | 39.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 63c | 37.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 3,426 | 31.1%1,066 W · 2,360 L | -38.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 45c | 34.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 504 | 62.3%314 W · 190 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 36c | 31.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 65c | 30.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 166 | 48.8%81 W · 85 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc52…795bbacked Yes | 39c | 30.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed Yes | 57c | 27.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 189 | 52.4%99 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No | 45c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 26.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x43ef…7d5abacked Yes | 59c | 25.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6840…c880backed Yes | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 60c | 24.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 67c | 24.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…88a2backed No | 72c | 24.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 71 | 78.9%56 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 59c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 269 | 60.2%162 W · 107 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 56c | 20.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17f3…cbf3backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 265 | 57.7%153 W · 112 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x383a…a20cbacked No | 71c | 19.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc9…b2eebacked No | 71c | 19.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on August 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on August 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.