NHL · resolved market
Stars vs. Wild: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d4f00c5a6c781efcee6745dd3e7949d8f4db97b2c66ce07d7ea299b8f973f2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,945
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,312
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,945 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Over | 38c | 700$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266 | 348 | 45.4%158 W · 190 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb5…b009backed Under | 61c | 598.84$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.56 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 62c | 512.14$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.7 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.82 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 33c | 484.65$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.1 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Over | 40c | 410.99$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.29 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -9.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 60c | 401.77$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.71 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Under | 67c | 318$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.47 | 393 | 44.8%176 W · 217 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 38c | 299.1$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.26 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 60c | 287.01$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.48 | 155 | 60%93 W · 62 L | +13.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 10c | 271.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 64c | 240.25$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.44 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 62c | 239.2$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.19 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc46…a54bbacked Under | 62c | 236.42$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.84 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7193…ae51backed Under | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 63 | 71.4%45 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 70c | 168.58$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 40c | 166.93$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.94 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 41c | 160.67$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.51 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Over | 43c | 151.69$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.39 | 317 | 44.2%140 W · 177 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc661…610abacked Under | 63c | 139.83$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.74 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 21c | 138.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 30c | 114.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 65c | 109$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.01 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 38c | 103.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 22c | 103.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 66c | 72$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1a…ed29backed Under | 79c | 62.71$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 228 | 53.9%123 W · 105 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Under | 60c | 48.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 41c | 48.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 196 | 57.1%112 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 41c | 48.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 160 | 54.4%87 W · 73 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 41c | 48.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…aadebacked Over | 41c | 48.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 41c | 48.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 38c | 48.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 148 | 55.4%82 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 67c | 48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 384 | 47.4%182 W · 202 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6687…b9ddbacked Over | 40c | 43.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Over | 38c | 36.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 239 | 50.6%121 W · 118 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Under | 67c | 30.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 40c | 28.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 334 | 50.9%170 W · 164 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 66c | 15.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa64f…e598backed Under | 79c | 13.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.97 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Stars vs. Wild: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Wild (-1.5)Stars won
- Stars vs. WildStars won
- Stars vs. Wild: O/U 4.5Over won
- Stars vs. Wild: O/U 5.5Over won
- Stars vs. Wild: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.